Oman Green Hydrogen Strategy

Mechanism

The strategy formalises Oman's bid to convert its high solar/wind resource endowment into a globally significant green-hydrogen export industry. It operates through three concrete instruments:

1. Centralised land allocation via Hydrom. Royal Decree 10/2023 designated Hydrom (Hydrogen Development Oman, fully owned by Energy Development Oman) as the singular state agent for green-hydrogen sector orchestration: master-planning, auction design, developer selection and shared-infrastructure provision. Roughly 50,000 km² of state land in Duqm, Dhofar and Al Jazir is reserved for hydrogen tendering — a state-as-asset-allocator pattern analogous to Saudi Arabia's NEOM-anchored REPDO scheme rather than open-market siting.

2. Binding production-capacity targets. The strategy commits to 1.0-1.5 Mtpa green-hydrogen production by 2030, 3.25-3.75 Mtpa by 2040, and 7.5-8.5 Mtpa by 2050 — backed by 8-15 GW / 35-40 GW / 95-100 GW of electrolyser build respectively, and 16-30 GW / 65-75 GW / 175-185 GW of dedicated renewable capacity. The 2050 figure makes Oman, on a per-capita basis, the most ambitious announced green- hydrogen producer state.

3. Tender-based concession allocation. Round-1 (Duqm, June 2023) awarded six concessions; Round-2 (Dhofar, April 2024) awarded the ~USD 11bn block of five projects to consortia led by EnergiHub (Hyport-led; OQ + Linde + Hydrom anchor), Salalah H2 (Posco + Engie + Samsung), and others; Round-3 (Duqm, launched April 2025) is in progress. Each concession includes a 47-year land lease, take-or-pay shared infrastructure access, and a binding capex/timeline commitment.

Downstream implications

• Offtake demand-pull from EU and East Asia. The 2030 target of

1.0-1.5 Mtpa is structurally calibrated to RED III RFNBO compliance demand from EU industrial offtakers (refining, steel, fertiliser) and to the Japan METI hydrogen-CfD framework under the Hydrogen Society Promotion Act (2024-05-17 action). EU and JP/KR offtake MoUs already signed include ACWA Power → Uniper, BP → Hyport, POSCO → Salalah H2.

• Anchoring effect for GCC green-hydrogen capex stack. Oman's

concession-tender model is being studied by UAE (Masdar) and Saudi Arabia (NEOM/REPDO) as a template for managing developer competition on state-owned land — a divergence from the equity-JV model used in Saudi NEOM Green Hydrogen Co. The ~USD 11bn Dhofar block alone represents the largest single tranche of green-hydrogen FID-track capex committed in any single jurisdiction to date.

• Electrolyser-equipment demand signal. The 95-100 GW 2050

electrolyser stack, even discounted for ramp-up risk, materially expands global electrolyser equipment-order pipelines for Tier-1 suppliers (Nel, Plug Power, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Siemens Energy, Sungrow, Longi). 2030 alone implies 8-15 GW of cumulative orders to Oman, compared to ~12 GW currently installed globally.

• GCC export-energy diversification template. Marks a structural

shift in Oman's posture away from LNG-only export dependence, parallel to UAE's ADNOC-routed CCS+blue-H2 strategy and Saudi Arabia's NEOM green-H2 stack — three GCC producers now positioning as parallel supply nodes to EU/JP/KR rather than competing solely as LNG exporters.

Open questions

• Whether the RED III delegated-act compliance pathway (additionality,

hourly matching) is achievable on Oman's tender-allocated combined solar-wind sites, given the regulatory tightness imposed on EU importers as of January 2028.

• Whether 2030 capacity targets remain achievable given current global

electrolyser supply-chain constraints (~10-15 GW/year Tier-1 stack capacity globally as of 2026) and the need for parallel ammonia- cracking infrastructure at offtaker ports.

• Whether Hydrom's land-allocation monopoly attracts WTO subsidy-

notification or carbon-leakage scrutiny under CBAM-like extensions to ammonia.