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Supply-risk intelligence for the critical materials where geopolitics decides availability: who mines and refines each one, at what concentration, which governments are moving against it, and what ex-China buyers actually pay. Verified against public primary sources (USGS, UN Comtrade, official gazettes, company filings).
Composite 0-100 of five weighted factors: production/refining concentration (35%), restrictive-policy pressure from the live register (25%), import reliance (15%), substitutability (15%), price stress (10%). Concentration uses the more-concentrated supply stage (usually refining). Descriptive exposure mapping from USGS/register data — not investment advice, and “more proposed” counts measures that are not yet law. Full factor decomposition on each material page.
Materials named in the most government measures recently
Premium ex-China buyers pay for export-controlled materials
Is China tightening at home?as of 2026-07-15 · STALE (82d)
The wedge is the gap between the China-domestic price and what buyers outside China pay for the same material, both from free published sources at monthly cadence — the live cost of export-control statecraft. A compressing or inverting premium while the China-domestic leg surges can signal China tightening at home before a formal control; it runs beside the policy register, never inside any score. China-vs-West price gap. China leg = SMM benchmark re-quoted MONTHLY (daily SMM is paywalled) — the China EXW/FOB stream where most physical volume trades. Western leg = a dealer/retail WAREHOUSE-TRADER reference (~daily) — the Rotterdam/warehouse stream: a small-volume sentiment + short-term-availability indicator, NOT the Western producer-CIF price and NOT offtake/producer economics (warehouse quotes trade structurally above producer CIF and can move on thin trading alone). Four distinct benchmark streams exist per material — see the benchmark ladder. The GAP and its direction are the signal, not the absolute cents. Premium behaviour = West-over-China premium on the source’s own in-warehouse/FOB basis (a DIFFERENT Western reference from the dealer/retail leg above — levels are not comparable across the two). Monthly, secondary republication of SMM. Elements in uniform-move clusters (five moved exactly +12.8% in Jul-2026) are excluded — those smell like basket adjustments, not independent liquid prints.
The plants and countries global supply squeezes through
Which country the world depends on, per material
Stocks-to-use, cover-days and top flow, all 46 materials
Which input to hedge first — years to a second source
How each material is actually bought and priced
Thematic pieces spanning several materials
The analytical lens used across all materials
One-read synthesis across all covered materials — common drivers, cross-material signals.
Strong rally, 3-month high; LFP demand-driven — Europe runs -13.6% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Rally; export-control risk premium on Nd/Pr — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/neodymium for the China-vs-West wedge
Co-moves with neodymium (didymium); export-control risk premium — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/praseodymium for the China-vs-West wedge
Heavy-RE premium; named in April 2025 China export controls — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/dysprosium for the China-vs-West wedge
Scarcest magnet RE; named in April 2025 China export controls — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/terbium for the China-vs-West wedge
Durable structural bull — electrification + AI — North America runs -15.6% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Rally paused; DRC >50%, LFP displacing demand — North America runs -4.3% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Bear market, Chinese over-investment — Europe runs +22.4% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Chinese export-control premium (Aug 2023) — monthly provider index, China-domestic reference (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Indonesia supply discipline (mirror of polysilicon) — Europe runs -14% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
no free feed — source paywalls this price; the figure shown is a static hand-typed quote
Nuclear renaissance; SMR data-centre offtakes
China >75% mine, >90% SPG; export ctrl Dec-2024 — Europe runs -19.6% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
China export licensing in force since Feb-2025 (not rumored), escalated Oct-2025 and Jan-2026. Western reference ~$3,025/mtu Amsterdam (Bloomberg via Les Echos, 24-Jul-2026) vs ~$891/mtu China-domestic — a ~3.4x export-control wedge — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Pt hit ATH Jan 2026; Pt>Pd ratio historic; H2 demand driving Pt — live PL=F/PA=F exchange futures, refreshed 6-hourly
More than doubled YoY; solar industrial + monetary rally — live SI=F exchange futures, refreshed 6-hourly
Solder-bound; CN 30% mining + 49% refining, Wa State + ID supply discipline — Europe runs -4.3% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
no free feed — source carries no matching commodity; the figure shown is a static hand-typed quote
BR 88% mining via CBMM Araxá; private FeNb pricing, stable long-term contracts; HSLA-steel microalloy bedrock
CN 85% Pidgeon-process refining; auto die-casting + Al alloying; 2021 Yulin shock remains the calibration event — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
US 46% + QA 36% friendly-country supply; Helium 3 (QA) 2025 + Saskatchewan ramp easing post-Cliffside-divestment market; bilateral-contracted, no LME — Europe runs -65.1% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Aerospace airframe demand — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
USGS MCS 2026 annual average; off a 2023 peak of $6,130/kg
USGS MCS 2026 annual average; sponge, not concentrate
CN 64% refining + 2024 MOFCOM dual-use export-licence regime doubled spot; ITO display dominates ~70% of demand, no chemically equivalent substitute — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/indium for the China-vs-West wedge
China MOFCOM Dec-2024 US export ban; Oct-2025 global quota (Announcement 68) — Europe runs +103.2% vs Northeast Asia — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
Battery + steel alloying demand — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
LME cash price, -1.41% day-over-day as of 2026-08-20
Galvanizing + die-casting demand; broad supply base, no single chokepoint producer — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
V2O5 basis, not elemental vanadium (vanadiumprice.com) — Europe leg concurrently $5.36/lb (Aug 14, 2026); battery-storage + steel-alloy demand
US retail dealer quote (Strategic Metals Invest) — dealer/retail markup, not a wholesale benchmark; SMM's China-domestic benchmark is no longer freely re-checkable (price cells now login-walled)
China dominates gallium refining; under export-licensing controls since 2023 — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
East China acid-grade fluorite powder, domestic; CIF US Gulf import assessments run materially higher ($540-800/t depending on grade) — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
China dominates global refining; under MOFCOM export-licensing controls since Aug 2023 — monthly provider index (proxy, not a spot assessment)
CN 60% refining (Cu-anode-slime recovery; no primary mine) + 2024 MOFCOM dual-use export-licence regime; CdTe thin-film PV (First Solar) ~40% of demand, EV-thermoelectric Bi₂Te₃ ~30%, HgCdTe IR-defence ~4% — live Western dealer reference, refreshed daily; see /minerals/tellurium for the China-vs-West wedge
Rh: Kitco ask, 2026-08-18. Ir: Umicore 10am price, 2026-08-19 (stable since 2026-08-03). No exchange-traded futures for either — the smallest, most volatile PGM sub-markets
no free feed — source paywalls this price; the figure shown is a static hand-typed quote
FOB Vancouver (Canpotex) benchmark, 2026-07-19; US Corn Belt retail runs materially higher ($310-380/t) — a different market layer (export FOB vs domestic farm-gate), not a conflicting quote
Morocco FOB benchmark, August 2026 (World Bank Pink Sheet) — flat at $170.00 after July's rise from $152.50 (March) / $156.90 (June); September not yet published
no free feed — source carries no matching commodity; the figure shown is a static hand-typed quote
SMM China-domestic benchmark, 2026-07-23 (range $1,069-1,225/t); settled back from a March 2026 celestite-supply-disruption spike that briefly hit ~$1,500/t
“data only” = the material is scored from structured primary sources (production shares, policy register, market structure) but has no written dossier yet — its page renders the computed sections and says so plainly.