Uzbekistan Presidential Decree UP-47: Export Duties on 86 Categories of Strategic Raw Materials and Agricultural Goods

Mechanism

Presidential Decree No. UP-47 of 14 March 2025 ("On Improving Export Procedures and Promoting the Production of Value-Added Finished Goods") replaces Uzbekistan's legacy system of export permits and bans with ad-valorem export duties for 86 commodity lines. The underlying rationale is threefold: (1) WTO compliance — Uzbekistan's accession obligations require phasing out export-licensing regimes in favour of tariff-based measures; (2) industrial-policy downstreaming — high export duties on raw forms (cotton lint, scrap metal, copper) create margin incentives for domestic processing to yarn, semi-finished metals, and refined products; (3) food-security retention — the 30–100% range on wheat, rice, flour and livestock substitutes the prior permit-based supply management.

Duty schedule (representative rates, per Annex 1 to the Decree)

Additional tranches (est. January 2027 or January 2028) cover further industrial raw-material categories not yet publicly detailed.

Phase-in structure

• Tranche 1 — June 1, 2025: cotton lint (100%) — highest-profile commodity,

largest textile-industry incentive signal.

• Tranche 2 — July 1, 2025: bulk of the schedule (metals, food commodities,

energy, livestock).

• Tranche 3 — January 1, 2026: polymers and remaining industrial inputs.
• Tranche 4 — January 1, 2028 (TBC): long-lead processing-transition items.

Downstream implications

• Cotton textiles: 100% export duty on raw cotton lint sharply redirects

Uzbekistani lint to domestic spinning mills, consistent with Uzbekistan's stated goal of exporting yarn/fabric rather than raw fibre. International cotton traders (Louis Dreyfus, Cargill, Chinese traders sourcing Central Asian lint) lose direct access to raw bales.

• Metals and scrap: 100% scrap-metal duty and 10% copper duty cut off

Turkish, Chinese and EU scrap buyers; incentivises domestic EAF steel capacity and copper refinery investment.

• Food prices: Wheat (30%) and rice (100%) export duties act as internal

market price stabilisers. Given Uzbekistan's status as a net food importer for some categories, the food-security logic is defensive — preventing domestic inflation from global price spikes — rather than supply-restricting for the world market. However, for regional importers in Central Asia (Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan), Uzbekistani supply access matters.

• WTO dimension: Uzbekistan applied for WTO accession in 1994; this decree

is explicitly framed as moving export management from licences to tariffs, consistent with WTO GATT Art. XI obligations.

Context within Uzbekistan's reform trajectory

The decree sits within President Mirziyoyev's "Uzbekistan-2030" strategy (DP-37, February 2024), which set value-added industrial output targets for textiles, chemicals and metals. The export-duty architecture operationalises those targets: rather than banning raw-material exports outright (which would violate WTO accession commitments), Uzbekistan uses tariff friction to tilt investment toward processing.

Compare to Indonesia's hilirisasi model: Indonesia used outright export bans (nickel ore 2020, bauxite 2023, copper concentrate 2024); Uzbekistan's WTO process constrains it to duties rather than prohibitions. The economic logic is identical — resource-nationalism via value-chain capture — but the instrument differs.

Open questions

• Full Annex 1 duty schedule not yet publicly translated; watch lex.uz for the

official Uzbek/Russian text of the complete 86-line commodity list.

• Tranche 3 (January 2026) and Tranche 4 (January 2028) commodity lists remain

unofficial — Cabinet of Ministers resolutions implementing those tranches will be the amend trigger.

• Whether cotton lint 100% duty drives enough domestic lint supply to sustain

Uzbekistan's 2030 target of 2bn metres of fabric exports annually.

• Regional food impact: monitor Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan import statistics for

wheat/flour price pass-through following July 1, 2025 duty activation.