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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
The European Commission's DG Trade opened the investigation under Article 5 of EU anti-dumping Regulation (EU) 2016/1036 (the basic AD regulation). The complaint was lodged by the Coalition Against Unfair Tyre Imports, an industry grouping representing EU tyre producers accounting for the requisite standing threshold (>25% of EU production). Product scope covers CN codes 4011 10 00 (new pneumatic rubber tyres for passenger cars) and 4011 20 10 (tyres for buses and lorries with load index ≤121 — light commercial vehicle segment).
The investigation proceeds in two phases: 1. Provisional stage (within 8 months of initiation, ~January 2026): Commission may impose provisional anti-dumping duties by regulation if dumping and material injury are provisionally established. 2. Definitive stage (within 14 months of initiation, ~July 2026): Definitive anti-dumping duties, if warranted, require a Council implementing regulation.
The EU already has existing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on Chinese heavy-truck and bus tyres (CN 4011 20 90 and related codes), demonstrating institutional willingness to impose duties in this product family. The passenger-car tyre investigation extends the EU's trade-defence perimeter from the commercial-vehicle segment into the much larger consumer/passenger-vehicle segment.
A parallel anti-subsidy (countervailing duty) investigation was initiated in November 2025 (reported as Notice C/2025/6788 or equivalent) covering the same product and country of origin. The two proceedings — anti-dumping and anti-subsidy — are expected to proceed in parallel and may result in combined AD+CVD duty packages at the definitive stage, consistent with the EU's approach on Chinese EVs (Regulation 2024/2619) and biodiesel (IR 2025/261).
The EU passenger-car tyre import market from China has grown to an estimated €2+ billion annually, driven by:
EU producers behind the complaint (Coalition Against Unfair Tyre Imports) include Michelin, Continental, Pirelli, Goodyear Europe, Bridgestone Europe, and Nokian Tyres. The complainants allege Chinese producers benefit from below-cost pricing enabled by state subsidies (energy, raw rubber, labour) and market-economy distortions — the same subsidy-basis logic used in the parallel CVD proceeding.
precedent (~30-45%), Chinese tyre brands currently growing EU market share would face significant price-competitiveness erosion in the replacement tyre segment.
sourcing Chinese-brand tyres as standard equipment may face cost pressures or require supplier diversification.
are cumulative in EU law, with the EV precedent showing combined rates exceeding 40%.
producers — may see redirected EU procurement interest if Chinese duties make origin-shift economically viable.
individual duty calculations, or will it apply all-others rate?
as occurred with some Chinese solar-panel producers?