Regulation (EU) 2025/1227, published 20 June 2025, imposes an additional 50% ad valorem customs duty on top of the standard Common Customs Tariff rate on roughly 101 tariff lines of agricultural products originating in or exported from Russia or Belarus, closing the remaining gap in the agri-tariff regime first opened in 2024. Fertilisers from the two countries face a separate, gradually escalating specific duty — starting around EUR 40-45 per tonne on top of the existing 6.5% ad valorem rate for the 2025-26 period, rising in annual steps to EUR 430 per tonne by 2028. The measure enters into force 1 July 2025 and is explicitly framed by the Council and Parliament as a further squeeze on Russian export revenue used to fund the war against Ukraine, extending the July 2024 agri-tariff regulation (EU) 2024/1392 to cover the products it left out.

Analyst notesShow

Mechanism

The regulation has two tracks. Agricultural products (roughly 101 CN codes not already covered by the July 2024 regulation) get a flat additional 50% ad valorem duty on top of the existing Common Customs Tariff rate, effective from entry into force. Fertilisers get a phased specific duty on top of the pre-existing 6.5% ad valorem rate: an initial EUR 40-45/tonne for the 2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30 period, then stepping up annually through 2026-07-01 to 2027-06-30 and 2027-07-01 to 2028-06-30, reaching EUR 430/tonne from 1 July 2028 onward. The staged fertiliser schedule is designed to give EU importers time to find alternative suppliers while still closing off Russian and Belarusian potash/nitrogen/phosphate export revenue over a three-year horizon rather than in one step.

This is the second EU regulation in the series — Regulation (EU) 2024/1392 (July 2024) covered the bulk of Russian/Belarusian agricultural imports; 2025/1227 mops up the remaining tariff lines the earlier act missed and adds the fertiliser-specific duty escalator.

Downstream implications

EU fertiliser importers face a rising landed-cost gap against Russian and

Belarusian potash/nitrogen suppliers through 2028, incentivising diversification toward Canadian, Moroccan, and Gulf suppliers.

Russian and Belarusian agricultural exporters lose EU market access on the

remaining ~101 product lines not already covered by the 2024 duty.

The phased fertiliser schedule (vs. the immediate 50% ag duty) signals the

EU deliberately trading off short-term price-shock risk to EU farmers against longer-run sanctions pressure.

Open questions

Whether Russian/Belarusian fertiliser volumes are being re-routed through

third countries to circumvent the tariff before the 2028 EUR 430/tonne rate takes full effect.

Whether the EU issues a further regulation before 2028 to accelerate or

soften the fertiliser escalator in response to global fertiliser price moves.

Sources

Primary: Regulation (EU) 2025/1227 — EUR-Lex Official Journal text

Secondary: Global Trade Alert — EU increased customs duties on Russia/Belarus agricultural and fertiliser imports

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Mechanism

Downstream implications

EU fertiliser importers face a rising landed-cost gap against Russian and

Belarusian potash/nitrogen suppliers through 2028, incentivising diversification toward Canadian, Moroccan, and Gulf suppliers.

Russian and Belarusian agricultural exporters lose EU market access on the

remaining ~101 product lines not already covered by the 2024 duty.

The phased fertiliser schedule (vs. the immediate 50% ag duty) signals the

EU deliberately trading off short-term price-shock risk to EU farmers against longer-run sanctions pressure.

Open questions

Whether Russian/Belarusian fertiliser volumes are being re-routed through

third countries to circumvent the tariff before the 2028 EUR 430/tonne rate takes full effect.

Whether the EU issues a further regulation before 2028 to accelerate or

soften the fertiliser escalator in response to global fertiliser price moves.