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The NTP 2025-30 is Pakistan's first five-year horizontal tariff-policy framework, establishing the Tariff Policy Board (TPB, chaired by the Minister of Commerce) as the standing implementation body that issues subsequent SRO-by-SRO tariff revisions within the NTP's authorised parameters. The policy is structurally comparable to India's National Manufacturing Mission and Vietnam's Resolution 57-NQ/TW as a multi-year horizontal framework that creates a rule-based environment for downstream sector-specific policy decisions.
Phase 1 (FY2025-26 — operative from 1 July 2025):
Full NTP trajectory (FY2025-26 → FY2029-30):
Sector-specific sequencing under NTP: Downstream SROs under the NTP framework address:
to support export diversification into synthetic-fibre apparel (responds to global buyer shift away from pure-cotton Bangladesh/Vietnam competition)
support the domestic long-products sector
The NTP was prepared under IMF technical assistance associated with Pakistan's USD 7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF, concluded September 2024) and the USD 1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The tariff rationalisation operates as the trade-policy leg of Pakistan's structural-reform conditionality package — the parallel legs being PSDP rationalisation, SOE divestment, and electricity-tariff reform. The IMF conditionality linkage means the NTP phasing schedule is subject to Article IV review; significant slippage (e.g., re-imposition of RDs outside the NTP schedule) risks RSF disbursement delays.
Pakistan's total import trade is ~USD 55–70 billion/year. Key bilateral exposure to the NTP:
on consumer electronics, machinery, EVs, and textiles primarily benefit Chinese-origin goods
goods duties; EU GSP+ preference margins narrow as MFN rates fall
dual-use equipment
products and petrochemical intermediates is material for energy-import bill
The GTAP-based projections underpin the IMF EFF conditionality case: 10–14% export-growth elasticity and 5–6% import-growth elasticity imply a net trade-balance improvement despite import liberalisation, driven by export-competitiveness gains from cheaper raw-material and intermediate inputs.
This is the first Pakistan horizontal trade-policy framework filed on the IPTM register. It serves as the parent-statute anchor for existing Pakistan sectoral filings (NEV Policy 2025-30, SIFC, Balochistan Mines Act, National Minerals Harmonisation Framework, Oil Refining Policy, STZA tech-zone notifications) and the queued NTC anti-dumping rulings (ADC-65 PFY, ADC-66 BOPP), all of which operate as exceptions or supplements to the NTP horizontal framework. Structural peer to:
Act 2025 publication date in Official Gazette is the binding instrument)
filed on schedule as per TPB mandate
trade-preference margin shrinks — watch EU GSP+ renewal review in 2027