Loading…
Loading…
The OVP is Turkey's highest-order economic policy document, issued annually by the SBB under the authority of the Presidential Government System. It constitutes a binding three-year rolling budget and structural-reform envelope from which all sectoral instruments — including investment incentive programmes, industrial tenders, and import-regime decrees — derive their mandate. The 2026-2028 edition was presented jointly by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, and CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, signalling whole-of-government commitment to the disinflation anchor.
Disinflation over growth trade-off. Growth targets were revised ~0.7 pp downward annually relative to the prior OVP (2025-2027), an explicit acceptance of near-term sacrifice to establish price credibility. The 28.5% year-end CPI baseline for 2025 is expected to halve to 16% by end-2026, then fall to single digits (9% in 2027, 8% in 2028).
Fiscal consolidation path. The central government deficit narrows from 3.6% of GDP (2025) to 2.8% by 2028, with the current-account deficit similarly targeted to shrink from 1.4% to 1.0% of GDP. This consolidation is intended to reduce the economy's external financing requirement and bolster lira stability.
Export and current account targets. Merchandise and services exports are projected to reach $282 bn in 2026, $294 bn in 2027, and $308.5 bn in 2028 (from a $273.8 bn 2025 baseline). Tourism receipts are targeted at $75 bn by 2028, a significant component of services-export uplift.
Three structural pillars: 1. Green transformation — sustainability standards integrated across industrial and energy policy; aligns with EU CBAM exposure and 12th Plan environmental benchmarks. 2. Digital transition / high-value-added manufacturing — accelerates HIT-30-style incentives for technology-intensive industry; targets a higher share of exports from advanced manufactures. 3. 12th Development Plan harmonisation (2024-2028) — the OVP is explicitly the three-year budgetary expression of the 12th Plan, ensuring continuity across planning horizons.
Labour market activation. The 2026-2028 OVP is notable as the first edition to include explicit labour-market activation measures — targeting female labour-force participation and formalisation of informal employment, with a total of ~2.5 million net new jobs targeted by 2028. Unemployment is projected to fall from 8.5% (2025) to 7.8% (2028).
Relationship to existing TR instruments. This document sits above all sector-specific filings:
digital/high-value pillar
current-account improvement objective
current-account and industrial-policy objectives
turns positive in 2026 — a structural shift that could attract EM fixed-income flows and reduce the lira's depreciation pressure on import-dependent manufacturers.
target implies continued growth in automotive (Togg, Ford Otosan, Oyak-Renault), defense (Bayraktar/Roketsan), and chemical exports — sectors with significant EU market exposure.
cement. The green-transformation pillar creates policy space for a national carbon-pricing mechanism — a prerequisite for CBAM transitional-regime eligibility.
export growth. A global growth slowdown or competitive devaluation pressure would stress both the deficit path and the disinflation trajectory simultaneously.
pressure trigger an early easing cycle as in 2021-2022?
(e.g., Turkish ETS, mandatory sustainability reporting)?