US Commerce preliminary antidumping determination on Algerian steel rebar (127.32% margin); parallel AD/CVD investigations on Bulgaria, Egypt, Vietnam

Mechanism

Rebar Trade Action Coalition (the US domestic-industry petitioner group, led by Commercial Metals Company) filed AD/CVD petitions on 4 June 2025 alleging that rebar imports from Algeria, Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam were being dumped and/or subsidized, materially injuring the US rebar industry. Commerce instituted the investigations on 10 June 2025 and the US ITC found a reasonable indication of injury shortly after, allowing the case to proceed to Commerce's preliminary determinations.

On 19 December 2025, Commerce issued its preliminary affirmative LTFV determination for Algeria: a 127.32% weighted-average dumping margin applied to Tosyali Iron and Steel Industry and, by default, all other Algerian producers/exporters (no separate-rate applicants qualified). The margin triggers a cash-deposit requirement on Algerian rebar imports at the preliminary rate pending Commerce's final determination (issued March 2026) and the subsequent AD order (April 2026). Algeria was excluded from the CVD track because USTR determined Algeria is not a Subsidies Agreement country, so ITC could not make the corresponding preliminary CVD injury finding.

Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam's preliminary LTFV determinations were postponed (petitioner request, 18 December 2025) to March 2026, after which Bulgaria and Egypt were found dumping at 52.80% and 34.20-52.73% respectively, and Vietnam at 121.97-130.77%. Preliminary CVD margins for Egypt (29.51%) and Vietnam (1.08%) were set earlier in the parallel subsidy track; Bulgaria was not part of the CVD investigation.

Severity rationale

Severity 3 (quant basis, anchored on the 127.32% Algeria margin):

• A margin above 100% is effectively prohibitive for the targeted

supplier — Algerian rebar becomes commercially unviable in the US market at that cash-deposit rate.

• Scope is narrow (a single construction-materials product line) and

the four targeted countries are not top-tier US rebar suppliers, which caps the trade-flow impact below a severity-4 sector-wide tariff action.

• The case follows the standard multi-country AD/CVD track (petition →

ITC preliminary injury → Commerce LTFV/CVD preliminary → final → order) rather than an emergency-authority or blanket measure.

Downstream implications

• Commercial Metals Company and other US rebar producers: the

preliminary margin allows Commerce's cash-deposit requirement to take effect immediately, providing near-term price support ahead of the final determination.

• **Algerian, and pending, Bulgarian/Egyptian/Vietnamese rebar

exporters:** effective market exclusion from the US once final duties and the AD order are in place (final Algeria determination: 6 March 2026; AD order: 29 April 2026).

• US construction-materials import mix: displacement toward

domestic mills and non-investigated origins as the four-country supply is priced out.

Open questions

• Final margins and CVD determinations for Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam

(originally due ~March 2026) will set the complete country-by-country duty schedule — watch for the AD/CVD orders on those three countries to confirm whether Vietnam's high preliminary margin (up to 130.77%) holds through finalization.

• Whether any Algerian producer secures a separate/lower rate in the

final determination given the current all-others 127.32% default.