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This is the UK's own legal instrument implementing the same coordinated cut documented on the EU side in [[2026-01-15-eu-commission-implementing-regulation-2026-124-oil-price-cap-44-1]]. OFSI regulates UK-nexus oil-price-cap compliance through General Licence INT/2024/4423849 rather than a standalone statutory instrument; the 15 January 2026 publication notice is the sixth amendment to that licence since its February 2024 issuance, following the same formula the EU Commission applied — a mechanical 15%-below-22-week-trailing-average-Urals calculation rather than a fresh political negotiation. The prior amendment (18 July 2025) cut the cap from USD 60.00 to USD 47.60; this one continues the same six-month cadence with a smaller USD 3.50/bbl step, consistent with Urals prices drifting lower over the reference window.
The wind-down structure mirrors the EU's: contracts signed at the old cap before the 31 January 2026 effective time remain valid provided the cargo is offloaded by 16 April 2026, giving the tanker/trading chain an ~11-week grace period to clear pipeline cargoes booked under the old price.
durable.** Six amendments to the same licence since 2024 (attestation timeframe, specified-ships exclusion, two price cuts, cross-referencing fixes) show OFSI treats the licence as a living instrument it updates routinely rather than renegotiating from scratch each cycle.
USD 12.40/bbl cut in July 2025; effects on shadow-fleet economics and Indian/Turkish refining margins should be proportionally smaller.
participants (Tier 1-3 providers, derivatives brokers, correspondent banks) continue operating under INT/2024/4423849's existing attestation and ancillary-cost-disclosure framework — no new compliance architecture, just a re-priced threshold.
continue applying the formula mechanically if Urals prices move sharply, testing the mechanism's political durability.
lockstep with the EU/UK dynamic mechanism or remains static at a different level.