Zambia SI 17/2026 — Control of Goods (Prohibition of Export) (Sulphuric Acids) Order, 2026

Mechanism

Sulphuric acid is a critical hydrometallurgical reagent for leaching copper and cobalt from oxide ores. Zambia's copper smelters produce approximately 2 million metric tonnes/year of sulphuric acid as a by-product of smelting operations; historically, surplus volumes have been piped or trucked across the border to serve the DRC's Katanga copper-cobalt belt, where there is no equivalent domestic acid supply.

Precursor: SI 63 of 2025 outright ban (September 2025). Following a period of acute domestic shortage driven by simultaneous extended maintenance shutdowns at First Quantum's Kansanshi smelter, Barrick's Lumwana operations, Mopani Copper Mines, and Konkola Copper Mines, Zambia imposed an outright export ban on sulphuric acid. With domestic processing plants also short of leaching reagent, unrestricted export to the DRC was unsustainable.

SI 17/2026: transition to permit-based control. Cabinet approved the shift from an outright ban to a structured permit regime in February 2026; SI 17/2026 formalised the transition effective 27 March 2026. Under the new framework, exporters apply to MCTI (info@mcti.gov.zm) for company-specific export authorisations. Permits are non-transferable — MCTI issued a public warning in May 2026 after evidence of a secondary market in permit resale emerged, signalling demand pressure.

DRC impact. Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, and numerous Chinese-affiliated oxide-ore processors in the Katanga province depend on imported Zambian acid. During the acute shortage period (late 2025 – early 2026), affected DRC operators reported reduced throughput at heap-leach and SX-EW circuits. The effective acid dependency is highest for cobalt-adjacent oxide ore processing, where alternative sulphuric acid sourcing routes (sea freight from China, Morocco, or the Middle East) carry a substantial cost premium and lead time.

May 2026 easing. As Zambian smelter production recovered, Commerce Minister Chipoka Mulenga announced in mid-May 2026 that Chambishi Copper Smelter and Mopani Copper Mines had been granted authority to resume sulphuric acid exports to the DRC — in limited, company-capped volumes. A separate 5,000 t authorisation was issued to Alliswell Investment Limited. The minister indicated the ceiling could widen further if domestic supply conditions remained stable.

Downstream implications

• DRC copper and cobalt production cost curve repriced. Oxide-ore processing economics worsen materially when Zambian acid is constrained: replacement acid costs more and can take weeks to source. Glencore (Mutanda, Kamoto) and affiliated EM processors absorb the largest impact.
• COPX drag — ZM + CD exposure. Copper miner ETFs with combined Zambia/DRC exposure feel the dual squeeze: Zambian smelter maintenance reducing acid by-product output AND DRC processing disruption cutting cathode/hydroxide throughput.
• Cobalt chain effect. Cobalt hydroxide extraction (predominantly DRC) is tightly coupled to copper oxide processing. An acid crunch compresses cobalt hydroxide output more than copper headline figures suggest, affecting battery supply chains (LG Energy Solution, CATL, Umicore as downstream consumers).
• Permit-as-leverage instrument. The permit structure gives Zambia discretionary control over acid exports without a permanent ban — allowing politically calibrated flows that can be used as bilateral leverage with the DRC or with specific mining operators.

Open questions

• Whether SI 17/2026 will be renewed, extended, or converted to a permanent permit framework once smelter maintenance backlog clears.
• Concrete volumes permitted vs. the historical ~200,000–300,000 t/year cross-border flow — not yet disclosed publicly.
• Whether DRC operators (Glencore, CMOC) will invest in alternative sulphuric acid infrastructure (e.g., locally sourced roasting capacity or sea-freight infrastructure at Dar es Salaam) to reduce structural Zambia dependency.