Russia sets Jun–Nov 2026 mineral-fertilizer export quota at 20 Mt (Government Resolution No. 431)

Mechanism

Russia operates a recurring six-month volumetric export-quota architecture over outbound shipments of nitrogen and compound mineral fertilisers, re-set semi-annually by Government Resolution. The system has been continuously in force since late 2021 (originally Resolution 2068 of 3 November 2021) and is rolled forward every six months.

Resolution 431 of 17 April 2026 fixes the June – November 2026 parameters at:

1. Aggregate quota: ~20 Mt. Broken into three sub-quotas: - Nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium sulphate, UAN, calcium ammonium nitrate excluding standalone AN): >8.7 Mt - Ammonium nitrate (standalone): >4.2 Mt — separately tracked, reflecting Russia's temporary AN export suspension (21 March – 21 April 2026) ahead of this cycle opening; the sub-quota effectively reauthorises AN exports from 1 June 2026 within the 4.2-Mt ceiling. - Complex fertilisers (NPK, NP, NPS, DAP, MAP): >7 Mt

2. Volume trajectory. The June – November 2026 aggregate (20 Mt) is essentially flat vs the prior H2 2025 cycle (~20 Mt per the amendment note in Resolution 1400) but meaningfully above the Dec 2024 – May 2025 cap (19.2 Mt, Resolution 1400) and the Dec 2025 – May 2026 cap (18.7 Mt). The year-on-year H2/H2 comparison is thus slightly higher.

3. Allocation methodology. As in prior cycles, the quota is distributed across exporters by historical export share over the prior 12 months — locking in the established PhosAgro / EuroChem / Acron / Uralchem / Uralkali cohort and limiting new-entrant access during the quota window.

4. Out-of-quota treatment. The cap remains a hard volumetric ceiling, not a revenue duty. Shipments above an exporter's allocation are blocked at customs. This is structurally different from the floating-rate-plus-€100/t revenue architecture that governs Russian grain exports.

5. Ammonium-nitrate context. The prior six-month cycle (Dec 2025 – May 2026) included a temporary domestic-priority AN suspension (21 March – 21 April 2026) driven by domestic supply-priority concerns ahead of the spring agriculture season. Resolution 431 effectively lifts that block for the H2 2026 window, but contains it within the 4.2-Mt sub-cap rather than restoring open-access exports.

Why this matters for MacroLens

Russia is the world's single largest mineral-fertiliser exporter by aggregate volume (~15-20% of global nitrogen export trade depending on segment). Key transmission channels:

• Global nitrogen-fertiliser price formation. The June – November

window spans the post-planting Northern-Hemisphere period and the Brazilian first-season corn planting (Sep – Nov). Russian supply availability at the FOB-Baltic basis directly affects the global urea/AN price band. A 20-Mt cap — essentially at historical run-rate levels — is supply-permissive and points to continued moderate nitrogen prices in Q3–Q4 2026.

• **Ammonium-nitrate reauthorisation as 2026-N-fertiliser cohort

signal.** The three-instrument 2026 global-nitrogen-export-restriction cohort (Indonesia Permendag 6 N-fertiliser export ban; Egypt Decision 190 $90/t export duty; this Russian quota) has collectively tightened the supply envelope for global N trade. Russia's 4.2-Mt AN sub-quota represents the marginal release valve: if that sub-quota had remained shut, AN prices for EU/LatAm import markets would face sustained upward pressure through the 2026-Q3 application season.

• EM food-cost transmission. Fertiliser cost is a 15-30% share of

producer cost for EM grain and oilseed crops; the 20-Mt cap sets the supply ceiling for the Brazilian first-season application window and second-season (safrinha) decision cycle — material for Brazil's corn and soy input-cost outlook.

2026 global-nitrogen-fertiliser-export-restriction cohort

This filing completes what is now a three-instrument 2026 N-fertiliser export-control cohort:

The aggregate impact is: the world's #1 (Russia), #3 (Indonesia by urea), and #7 (Egypt by nitrogen export volume) suppliers are all operating some form of export restriction simultaneously in 2026-H1/H2.

Downstream implications

• Nitrogen and AN markets can absorb the Russian H2 2026 quota at

~20-Mt levels without acute shortage; the AN sub-cap is the most watched given the March 2026 suspension precedent.

• Brazilian agricultural input costs should stabilise (the cap is

supply-permissive), but the cohort-level restriction picture remains tight vs a counterfactual unrestricted-export environment.

• PhosAgro and Acron are the largest beneficiaries of the quota-by-

historical-share mechanism (both have the largest export footprints in the nitrogen segment); EuroChem benefits on the compound side.

Open questions

• Whether the standalone ammonium-nitrate sub-quota (4.2 Mt) fully

normalises AN trade flows in Q3–Q4 2026 or whether any carryover supply deficit from the March–May 2026 suspension persists.

• Whether the Dec 2026 – May 2027 cycle will raise or hold the

aggregate cap; the H2 cap has been 20 Mt for two consecutive cycles.

• Whether Indonesia's parallel urea export ban (Permendag 6) is

lifted or extended at its review date — a key swing factor for global urea availability alongside the Russian cap.