Guinea / GAC / EGA: Amicable Settlement Agreement — Bauxite Concession Dispute Resolved

Mechanism

The settlement was negotiated under the auspices of the acting president of the Paris Bar Association, serving as a neutral facilitator. The agreement was signed on 6 May 2026 by Minister of Mines Bouna Sylla and Minister of Finance on behalf of the Republic of Guinea, alongside representatives of GAC and EGA. The joint press release is co-signed by all three parties and constitutes the primary public disclosure instrument; no Journal Officiel gazette instrument has been identified.

The settlement closes the full arc of Guinea's "nationalise then re-partner" sequence:

1. August 2025 revocation — Presidential decrees revoke GAC's 690.20 km² Boké concession for non-compliance with alumina refinery obligations; NMC created as 100%-Guinean state entity. 2. May 2026 settlement — Guinea pays undisclosed lump sum; GAC/EGA formally transfer all assets; NMC assumes Sangarédi operatorship; CBG–EGA supply contracts renewed.

Guinea achieved three strategic outcomes without losing an international arbitration: (a) full state ownership of the concession and Sangarédi infrastructure; (b) cash compensation from EGA that partially offsets Guinea's investment in NMC start-up; (c) continued EGA offtake through CBG–EGA contracts, maintaining export revenue while NMC ramps operations.

IPTM significance

• Guinea as bauxite hegemon: Guinea accounts for ~55% of global seaborne bauxite trade.

The settlement confirms that the state-controlled supply chain is intact — EGA's UAE alumina refineries (~2.6 Mt/yr) remain anchored to Guinea feedstock, now via NMC/CBG rather than directly through GAC concession.

• "Nationalise then re-partner" model confirmed: Guinea captured concession and infrastructure

without an arbitration defeat, then restored commercial offtake under state-operator terms. This is structurally distinct from the filed revocation decree (2025-08-05) and establishes a replicable model for Guinea's concurrent SMB/CBG refinery ultimatum.

• Enforcement credibility reinforced: The EGA precedent (revoke → settle → state operatorship)

directly strengthens Guinea's leverage over other non-compliant bauxite concession holders. NMC's assumption of Sangarédi operatorship demonstrates that the one-year operational launch clock inserted into the August 2025 decree was credible.

• EGA transitions from operator to offtake customer: EGA writes down USD 680m, surrenders

direct mine equity, and becomes a long-term bauxite buyer from NMC/CBG. This is a structural shift in EGA's alumina supply-chain risk profile.

Open questions

• Has NMC met the one-year operational launch deadline at Sangarédi (due by ~August 2026)?
• What are the precise commercial terms (volume, price-formula, duration) of the renewed

CBG–EGA bauxite supply contracts?

• Will Guinea apply the same revocation-then-settle mechanism to SMB or other CBG joint-venture

partners facing refinery non-compliance under the Simandou 2040 mandate?

• Is a formal Guinean Ministry of Mines press release or Journal Officiel gazette forthcoming

to supplement the EGA joint statement?