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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Standard EU trade-defence sequence: two Union nonwovens producers (Freudenberg Performance Materials and Johns Manville) file a complaint alleging Chinese dumping of PET spunbond; the Commission initiates a proceeding (15 Sep 2025, OJ C/2025/5010); roughly eight months later a provisional duty is imposed (12 May 2026 regulation, in force 14 May 2026) pending a definitive determination due by 13 November 2026. PET spunbond is a glass-fibre-capable polyester nonwoven used mainly as a reinforcement/carrier layer in bituminous roofing membranes and geotextiles, and secondarily in other technical-textile and construction applications. The Commission's own injury-period data shows Chinese import market share nearly tripling from the 0-5% band to 15-20% between 2021 and 2024 — the kind of import-penetration trajectory that routinely underpins EU AD findings of material injury.
The 45.6%-50.0% duty range is high by EU biodiesel/steel-case standards (cf. the 10-35.6% EU biodiesel case, docs/iptm/actions/2025-02-10-eu-biodiesel-antidumping-china.md) but well short of the outlier 180%+ rates seen in niche specialty-chemical cases (cf. PBTC, docs/iptm/actions/2026-05-13-eu-alkyl-phosphonic-acids-pbtc-china-provisional-antidumping.md). Severity is set at 3 (moderate): a meaningful ad-valorem rate with real market-share displacement, but a single narrow product line (CN 5603 subheadings only) rather than a broad multi-product or supply-chain-wide intervention.
materially closing the price gap that drove their market-share gains since 2021; EU roofing-membrane and geotextile fabricators will need to shift sourcing back toward Freudenberg, Johns Manville, other EU/EEA producers, or non-Chinese third-country suppliers.
Basic Regulation's standard ~14-month window from the 15 Sep 2025 initiation); file as an amendment when it lands, since definitive duty rates commonly diverge from the provisional range.
September 2025 window on unrelated chemical/textile products (PET spunbond, alkyl phosphonic acids/PBTC, and CRFs) — distinct proceedings under different CN codes; do not conflate with the PBTC case above.
floor vs. the 50.0% residual/all-other-companies rate) — not visible in the secondary sources reviewed; would require the full EUR-Lex regulation annex.
in sources reviewed; needed to properly scale trade-flow-weighted severity.
revises, or terminates the provisional duty.