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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
The European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade opened Case AD747 on 19 December 2025 after Lanxess Chemical B.V., on behalf of EU producers representing more than 25% of Union production of sodium benzoate (a food/beverage preservative, HS/CN ex 2916 31 00), alleged Chinese exporters were selling below fair value. EU imports of the product more than doubled from 2022 to 2024, with Chinese producers' EU market share rising from roughly a third to about 55% over the same period. As is standard EU trade-defence procedure, the Commission first imposed customs registration of Chinese sodium benzoate imports (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/366, 19 February 2026), preserving the ability to apply duties retroactively. The provisional-duty stage followed with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1854, adopted 27 July 2026 and published 28 July 2026, setting company-specific ad-valorem duty rates: 57.6% for Wuhan Youji Industries, 63.8% for Shandong TongTaiWeiRun Food Science Tech, 75.4% for Tianjin Dongda Chemical Group, and a 116.4% residual rate for all other Chinese exporters.
duties in the same late-July 2026 OJ batch — see 2026-07-29-eu-benzyl-alcohol-china-antidumping-provisional) confirms a broader EU trade-defence push against Chinese organic-chemical intermediates, alongside the existing titanium dioxide, glass fibre yarn, and biodiesel antidumping actions against China already on the register.
into the EU market, likely shifting EU sourcing toward domestic producers (Lanxess) or third-country suppliers.
termination) — expected within 12-14 months of the 19 December 2025 initiation, i.e. roughly Q4 2026-Q1 2027.