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Forced labour supply-chain import prohibitions and due-diligence mandates

Binding statutory instruments that prohibit imports of goods made with forced or child labour and impose corporate due-diligence obligations across global supply chains. The cluster captures the converging G7 architecture: the US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) rebuttable-presumption model, the EU Forced Labour Regulation (market-prohibition + Commission investigation), and Canada's Fighting Against Forced Labour and Child Labour in Supply Chains Act (supply-chain disclosure + customs-tariff extension). Distinct from the broader western-industrial-policy-stack (which covers subsidies and industrial strategy) and from sanctions-enforcement-civil-penalties (which covers financial-sanctions enforcement actions against designated entities). This theme tracks the trade-prohibition and due-diligence pillar of the forced-labour governance architecture.

8 actionspeak severity 3· 42 countries targeted· 24 sectors· 4 issuers· avg sev 2.9· span 60mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 42 issuer→target vectors.

Isolated to US→RU · clear isolate

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1US→CNbase sev 3L 24· 4 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

2US→RUbase sev 3L 18· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

3US→AEbase sev 3L 18· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

4US→CAbase sev 3L 18· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

5US→IRbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

6US→LBbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

7US→ECbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

8US→IDbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

9US→MXbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

10US→PKbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

+32 vectors below cap · click to expand

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.