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US nuclear nonproliferation export controls on China and Macau

US BIS and NRC measures expanding Nuclear Nonproliferation (NP2) licensing requirements for exports of nuclear-related dual-use items to China and Macau. Enacted August 2023 in response to China's military modernization, military-civil fusion strategy, and nuclear force expansion. The measures add NP2 column controls to the Commerce Country Chart (15 CFR Part 738 Supplement No. 1) and amend 15 CFR § 742.3, covering ECCNs for depleted uranium, graphite, deuterium, nuclear plant equipment, and related technology.

11 actionspeak severity 4· 20 countries targeted· 20 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 2.6· span 37mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 20 issuer→target vectors.

Isolated to US→OM · clear isolate

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1US→CNbase sev 4L 31· 9 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

2US→PKbase sev 4L 31· 5 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

3US→AEbase sev 3L 24· 4 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

4US→RUbase sev 4L 22· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

5US→MYbase sev 3L 21· 3 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

6US→JPbase sev 4L 19· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

7US→SGbase sev 4L 19· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

8US→TWbase sev 4L 19· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

9US→HKbase sev 3L 18· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

10US→OMbase sev 3L 18· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

+10 vectors below cap · click to expand

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.