Loading…
Loading…
One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
Only China produces dysprosium at the refining stage in our dataset — no substitute capacity to rank.
Stage: Heavy-RE separation (Dy oxide/metal) — near-total China monopoly · Year: 2025 · Source: Heavy-RE split modelled from USGS MCS 2026 rare-earths aggregate + IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 / EU JRC (Dy/Tb: ion-adsorption-clay feedstock in southern China + Myanmar; ~100% Chinese separation).
Post-removal HHI = 10,000 (extreme). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m dysprosium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Dysprosium is a HEAVY rare earth and, with terbium, the single most weaponised input in the wind/EV magnet chain. China controls ~100% of heavy-RE SEPARATION (separation HHI ~9,800, the most extreme in the register — more concentrated than light REs/Nd at ~7,300), and the feedstock (ion-adsorption clays) sits in southern China + Myanmar; the diversified light-RE mines (US Mountain Pass, Australia Mt Weld) yield essentially no Dy. China named dysprosium explicitly in its April 2025 export-licensing controls (Sm/Gd/Tb/Dy/Lu/Sc/Y), putting all NdFeB magnets containing Dy under non-automatic licensing with 60-120 day reviews. Added to magnets to resist demagnetisation at high temperature; some OEMs (e.g. Vestas) are engineering it out of new platforms, which converts the sourcing problem into a one-time design problem but leaves residual exposure in the installed fleet + service/spares. Mining + separation shares are a modelled estimate (USGS reports rare earths only in aggregate, not per element); see HEAVY_RE_ESTIMATE source note.