Graphite · Monthly — April 2026

Bottom line: graphite is the cleanest ongoing test of the Chinese export-control pattern. Added to China's export control list December 2024 (joining Ge/Ga from Aug 2023 and heavy REEs from Apr 2025). Chinese dominance is structural: >75% of mining, >90% of spherical-graphite (SPG) battery- anode processing. Demand is secular (EV anodes use 50-100 kg/vehicle regardless of cathode chemistry; LFP's rise doesn't erode graphite demand).

Production state (verified via Statista, 2024 data)

Reserves (for ~20-30 year outlook): China 81Mt, Brazil 74Mt, Turkey 90Mt (underdeveloped), Madagascar 26Mt, Mozambique 25Mt. Supply geography is diversifying slowly but refining / processing is not.

Refining (the real chokepoint, pre-wake)

• China >90% of spherical graphite (SPG) battery-anode

processing capacity — more concentrated than mining

• Even Madagascar / Mozambique flake typically ships to China

for SPG conversion before reaching battery makers

• Non-Chinese SPG at-scale: Syrah Vidalia LA (~11kt/yr target

by 2027), Novonix/Anovion synthetic (smaller)

• Chinese SPG capacity ~1.5 Mt/yr; non-Chinese aspiration

<10% of that by 2027

China export control (central narrative)

Timeline:

• Aug 2023: China imposes export licensing on gallium +

germanium (template event)

• Dec 2024: Graphite (flake + synthetic) added to list.

Licenses required from Ministry of Commerce.

• 2025 H1: Licenses slow to flow; Western battery

manufacturers delayed; prices spike

• 2026 Q1: Licenses flowing more smoothly to approved

counterparties (Japanese + Korean battery makers preferred over US)

• Apr 2025: Heavy REEs (Dy, Tb) added
• Watched: Nd/Pr next shoe (see materials/neodymium.md)

Current state: Chinese export controls are functioning as "managed pricing power" — similar to the Ge/Ga pattern. Licenses flow, but at a cost, and direction of flow is policy-choice.

Pricing state (structural, not re-verified this wake)

Approximate ranges from pre-wake knowledge:

• Large flake (+100 mesh, 94-97% C): ~$1,000-1,500/t
• Jumbo flake (+80 mesh, 97% C): ~$1,500-2,500/t
• Spherical graphite battery-grade: ~$3,500-5,500/t
• Synthetic graphite battery-grade: ~$5,000-8,000/t
• UHP EAF electrodes: $3,000-30,000/t cyclical

FEOC-compliant (non-Chinese) battery-grade commands a significant premium (20-40%+) over Chinese-processed material since 2024. Exact premium depends on:

• Supplier (Syrah Vidalia vs Anovion vs Novonix)
• Contract structure (long-term offtake vs spot)
• End user (IRA-sensitive battery makers pay up)

Demand structure

• Battery anode (natural SPG + synthetic): ~45% and growing

fastest — every EV uses 50-100 kg of graphite regardless of cathode chemistry

• Refractories + crucibles: ~15%
• Lubricants + industrial: ~10%
• Graphite electrodes: ~8% (EAF steel)
• Solar/carbon: ~8%
• Expandable (fire retardants): ~6%
• Other: ~8%

Graphite's advantage over cobalt as a battery-metal play: LFP chemistry destroys cobalt demand per EV but graphite demand per EV is stable-to-rising (LFP anodes use slightly more graphite to hit energy targets).

Concentration risks (ranked)

1. Further Chinese export-control tightening — licenses could slow or restrict by end-use category. Immediate Western battery-grade price impact. 2. Madagascar / Mozambique political instability — both vital non-Chinese flake producers 3. Syrah Vidalia ramp delays — flagship non-Chinese SPG; delays extend FEOC premium stress 4. Inverse risk: Chinese license flow normalises to Western counterparties, FEOC premium compresses, non- Chinese SPG economics become marginal

Compared to cobalt (declining structural demand, concentrated supply), graphite has rising structural demand + concentrated supply + active policy lever being exercised = the closest thing in this atlas to a structural bull that policy can inflect hard.

Scenarios

• FEOC premium expands to 50%+ + Chinese battery-grade

rises to $5-6k/t: if December 2024 controls tighten or extend to spherical graphite specifically, and Syrah ramp slips

• Current regime continues (base case): Chinese SPG

$3.5-5.5k, FEOC-compliant $4.5-7k, Syrah ramps slowly, EV demand supports prices

• Policy thaw / supply response: if Chinese license flow

normalises fully to West AND Syrah + Anovion + Novonix ramp faster, premium compresses, absolute prices plateau or modestly decline

Policy / geopolitical watchlist

• China MofCom graphite license approval rates (opaque;

follow aggregate exports)

• US IRA FEOC phase-in for graphite (2026-2027

tightening)

• Syrah Resources Vidalia ramp updates (quarterly)
• Anovion + Novonix commissioning milestones
• DoD DPA awards for graphite projects
• EV chemistry mix (CAAM, BNEF) — graphite demand is

chemistry-agnostic but rises with total EV volumes

Questions this report helps answer

• "Is my graphite supply chain at risk?" — If you source

SPG from Chinese processors, yes. Licensing in effect since Dec 2024. Non-Chinese alternatives exist at premium, but capacity is <10% of Chinese for the foreseeable future.

• "Does LFP kill graphite like it does cobalt?" — No.

Graphite per EV is chemistry-agnostic. Structural demand grows with EV volumes regardless.

• "Should I pay the FEOC premium?" — If you sell EVs into

the US IRA-credit market, yes (tax credit > premium cost). If you're a non-US market, the Chinese economics still win.

What this report needs

• Fresh spot graphite prices via Fastmarkets / Benchmark /

Argus (paywalled; best-effort via WebFetch gave no data)

• Syrah Q1 2026 earnings / capacity update
• Anovion + Novonix commissioning status
• April 2026 China export license flow data if available

Cross-references

• docs/minerals/materials/graphite.md (dossier)
• docs/minerals/materials/germanium-gallium.md — same

export-control pattern, earlier trigger (Aug 2023)

• docs/minerals/materials/neodymium.md — Nd/Pr is the

probable next shoe in the same pattern

• docs/minerals/materials/lithium.md, cobalt.md,

nickel.md — graphite is the anode complement to these cathode-side EV battery materials