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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (69% of global) halts: 7 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 0-6mo (KR) · highest policy-risk: KR (score 0, 0 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Indium recovery (zinc-smelter co-product extraction; ~1,100 t/yr global) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 3,570 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m indium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Indium is the indispensable input to ITO (indium-tin-oxide) — the transparent conductive coating on every LCD panel, every capacitive touchscreen, every OLED display, and every CIGS thin-film PV module on Earth. ITO is the only commercial transparent conductor combining >80% visible-light transmittance with sheet resistance below ~10 Ω/sq, and indium is the only economically viable atom that delivers the property — no chemically equivalent substitute exists for the display-panel use case. ~99% of primary indium output is recovered as a co-product of zinc smelting from sphalerite (ZnS) concentrates containing 50-2,000 ppm In; a small secondary stream comes from tin / lead / copper concentrate flue dusts. Mining HHI ~1,400 (low-moderate) reflecting Chinese zinc-mining concentration but spread across Andean + Australian + North American + Indian sources; refining HHI ~4,500 (high-band approaching extreme) reflecting the Chinese In-recovery cluster (Liuzhou Zinc + Zhuzhou Smelter + Huludao Zinc + Shaoguan Smelting + Yunnan Tin) processing both domestic and imported zinc concentrates. Decade trajectory: CN refining share 52% → 58% → 70% (MCS 2026 narrative; the 70% figure is the canonical late-cycle peak; world refinery output also revised UP from ~960 t to ~1,100 t) — the "Chinese-refining-share-creep" pattern shared with tungsten, graphite, antimony, manganese, magnesium, magnified by Feb 2025 export-licence demand-pull from CN-domestic InP-substrate fabricators (5G/AI optical transceiver build-out). KR 14% → 17% → 16% has flatlined as LS Nikko Onsan expansion ramped slower than the CN catch-up; JP / CA / BE / FR aggregate share 28% → 23% → 13% structural decline accelerated. The 2024-2025 China MOFCOM dual-use export-licence regime (July 2024 + December 2024 + February 2025 progressive tightening) lifted spot price ~$311/kg (Rotterdam 2024 avg) → ~$380/kg (Rotterdam 2025 avg; +22% YoY; peak $408/kg June 2025) — milder than the 4× bismuth shock because Korean + Japanese + Canadian smelter recycling-cluster supply could partially substitute, and because LCD-display demand softened. Unwrought In exports fell 72% YoY (Sep 2024 → Sep 2025 per Asian Metal/USGS), the deepest export-licence-driven volume crash among the December 2024 / February 2025 critical-mineral controls. Korea is uniquely exposed as both the largest non-Chinese refiner (~165 t/yr) AND the largest non-Chinese ITO-fabrication cluster (Mitsui Mining Korea + LG Chem + DuPont supplying ~50-55% of global ITO sputter-targets). US has ZERO domestic primary indium recovery since 2017 (Indium Corporation NY operates as a downstream fabricator buying foreign refined In; Nyrstar Clarksville TN very limited). Heraeus Hanau is the German Mittelstand anchor — global market leader in ITO sputter-target manufacturing for OLED + LCD + automotive HUD displays consuming ~60-100 t/yr indium, with closed-loop ITO-target reclamation ~70% recycle rate. Recycling: closed-loop ITO target reclaim already covers ~50-60% of new target supply (industry-wide recycle rate among the highest of any critical mineral). End-use breakdown: ITO ~70% + III-V semiconductors ~10% + CIGS thin-film PV ~5-7% + soft solders ~10%. Listed on US DOI 2018 + 2022 + 2025 + DPA §303 since 2020, EU CRMA Annex II 2024 Strategic + Critical, JP METI 34-list, KR KORES 33-list, AU 2023, UK 2023 Refresh, CA 2021. The most-watched 2025-2030 supply variables are: (1) LS Nikko + Dowa + JX Nippon incremental capacity additions ~30-50 t/yr; (2) closed-loop ITO recycling intensification toward 75-80% (would cut primary demand 15-20%); (3) InP-wafer demand for 100G/400G/800G data-centre transceivers + 5G/6G mmWave + LiDAR growing 12-18% CAGR; (4) CIGS-PV vs c-Si market-share competition (CIGS share decline would soften demand 50-100 t/yr by 2030).
Non-CN refining capacity ~335 tpy vs global demand 900 tpy → 6–12 months runway before structural shortage. This is a global single number; substitutes below show who specifically provides it.