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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (86% of global) halts: 6 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 6-12mo (RU) · highest policy-risk: BR (score 1.8, 1 filings) · 2 of these (RU, IR) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Magnesium metal (Pidgeon silicothermic + electrolytic) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 2,725 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m magnesium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
The canonical Chinese-refining-chokepoint critical mineral with the most dramatic single supply-shock event of the past decade: September–October 2021 Shaanxi-province "energy consumption double-control" electricity-rationing at the Yulin Pidgeon-process cluster cut Chinese magnesium-metal output ~50% and global ingot prices spiked from ~$3,000/t to ~$10,000/t in six weeks. That event drove magnesium onto every major-economy critical-minerals list. Mining is moderately diversified (China ~60% per MCS 2026, Brazil ~9%, Russia ~8%, Turkey ~8%, plus Austria/Spain/Australia/Slovakia) but mining is NOT the binding constraint — magnesium is the eighth-most-abundant crustal element and seawater holds millennia of latent supply. The chokepoint is refining: ~86% of magnesium-metal output comes from Chinese Pidgeon-process plants concentrated in Shaanxi (Yulin)/Shanxi/Ningxia (USGS MCS 2026, up from 85% in MCS 2025; the sole US primary smelter, US Magnesium Rowley UT, filed Chapter 11 in September 2025 — operations ceased 2022 and never restarted). Pidgeon economics depend on cheap thermal coal + dolomite + lax emissions standards — which is why every Western primary capacity (Pechiney Marignac FR closed 2001, Norsk Hydro Becancour CA closed 2003, Magcorp UT closed 2002) has shut. The German Mittelstand exposure is direct via auto die-casting (AZ91/AM50/AM60 alloy ingots → instrument-panel cross-car beams, steering-wheel armatures, gearbox housings, EV battery enclosures) and via aluminium-alloying (5xxx/6xxx-series alloys for can sheet + auto sheet + aerospace plate). Western greenfield primaries in the pipeline (Verde Magnesium RO, Latrobe Magnesium AU, Korab AU, US Magnesium expansion, Western Magnesium NV) total ~150–250 kt/y over 5–7 years vs current ~1,100 kt global — meaningful but not transformative; Chinese share would shift from ~85% toward ~75% if every project ships. Russian Solikamsk + AVISMA primary capacity excluded from Western buyer lists since Feb 2022; Israeli Dead Sea Magnesium operationally uncertain since 2017 ICL wind-down signals.