Neodymium — material dossier

Structural facts + context. Verified components marked; others carried from pre-wake knowledge and should be re-verified when a specific question depends on them.

What it is

Rare earth element (atomic number 60). Light rare earth (LREE) in geochemical classification, but paired with praseodymium (Pr) in most commercial contexts because the two are chemically similar and usually co-produced.

NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) magnets are the dominant use case — the strongest permanent magnets commercially available. These magnets are the foundation of:

• EV traction motors (~2-3 kg NdFeB per EV)
• Wind turbine direct-drive generators (~200-500 kg per MW)
• Consumer electronics (speakers, hard drives, voice coils)
• Defence systems (guidance, radar, missile systems)

The magnet chemistry also typically includes dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) (heavy rare earths) for high-temperature applications. Those heavy REEs are even more China-concentrated and are separately priced — but when people talk about "rare earth supply chain risk" in the EV/wind/defence context, they mean the NdPr+Dy+Tb bundle.

Where it comes from (verified where noted)

Mine production (verified via Statista summary, 2025 data)

• China: >70% of global rare earth mining (2025). Down from

97% in 2016 — real diversification has happened, but China is still dominant.

• United States second (Mountain Pass operation, MP Materials)
• Australia ~29,000 tonnes REO (Lynas-dominated)
• Myanmar ~22,000 tonnes REO (artisanal mining, heavy REEs

feed into China via Yunnan border — geopolitically sensitive)

• Rest: India, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam (small)

Refining / separation (structural, not re-verified)

China dominates refining ~85-90%. This is the real chokepoint and more concentrated than mining. US (MP Materials Stage II/III in progress), Europe (Lynas Malaysia + JP partners), and emerging plays (Energy Fuels, Ucore) are working to build non-Chinese refining capacity but timelines are multi-year.

Even ore mined in Australia (Lynas, Iluka) historically shipped to China for separation. Lynas Malaysia was the first non- Chinese rare-earth separation facility at scale.

Magnet production (structural)

China ~87% of NdFeB magnet production. This is the most concentrated link in the whole chain. Even if you mine and refine outside China, you still typically buy finished magnets from Chinese producers (Zhongke Sanhuan, Ningbo Yunsheng, JL Mag Rare-Earth).

Non-Chinese magnet projects: Neo Performance Materials (EU + Canada), Shin-Etsu (Japan), VAC/Tesla-funded startups, MP Materials downstream, Australian Strategic Materials.

Price state (verified 2026-04-23 via Trading Economics)

Like lithium, neodymium is in a strong uptrend after the post- 2022-peak crash. YoY +103% is aggressive. Current level ~70% of the all-time high. Market-implied view: supply-tight, demand recovering, structural drivers (EV + wind + defence) reassert.

Demand structure

• EV traction motors — biggest growth source; each EV uses

~2-3 kg of NdFeB magnet content (~1 kg Nd/Pr plus small Dy/Tb)

• Wind turbines — direct-drive offshore turbines are

magnet-intensive (~650 kg/MW); large addressable demand as offshore wind scales

• Consumer electronics — smaller per-unit but huge volumes
• Defence & aerospace — precision-guided weapons, radar,

satellite; small tonnage but strategic

• Industrial motors (factory automation, robotics) —

growing with industrial-AI / manufacturing reshoring

Policy / geopolitical context

• China export controls — imposed on samarium, gadolinium,

terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium as of early 2025 (response to US Taiwan/semi pressure). Nd/Pr specifically NOT yet under controls, but are widely seen as the next candidates. This is the #1 risk factor for non-Chinese magnet supply chains.

• US DoD Defense Production Act funding for rare earth

mining, separation, magnet manufacture (MP Materials, Energy Fuels, Neo Performance all beneficiaries).

• EU Critical Raw Materials Act lists rare earths as

strategic; target 10% domestic mining, 40% processing, 25% recycling by 2030.

• Australian Critical Minerals Strategy — explicit funding

for rare earth mining + processing, aiming to be the non- Chinese anchor for Western supply.

• Japan (biggest historical non-Chinese consumer) has been

the most strategic buyer — multi-decade relationships with Lynas, equity stakes in projects, long-term offtakes.

Concentration risks (ranked)

1. China restricts NdPr oxide exports — not yet, but structurally probable. Would immediately spike prices another 50-100%+. 2. China magnet export controls — already partially in place for some rare earths; extension to Nd/Pr-magnets would be the bigger blow than oxide controls because magnet-finishing capacity takes years to build. 3. Myanmar supply disruption — political instability is chronic; disruption would tighten heavy REE supply (Dy/Tb) which co-flows with Nd/Pr. 4. MP Materials downstream delays — US Stage II/III ramp slower than planned would extend Chinese dominance.

Players to know

Producers (mining)

• MP Materials (US, Mountain Pass)
• Lynas Rare Earths (Australia, Mt Weld + Malaysia separation)
• China Northern Rare Earth (state-linked, dominant Chinese producer)
• Iluka Resources (Australian, Eneabba stockpile + future

refinery)

Non-Chinese refining / separation

• Lynas Malaysia (Kuantan)
• Shin-Etsu / Solvay (Japan + France)
• MP Materials Stage II (ramping)
• Energy Fuels White Mesa Utah (uranium-Th byproduct REE)

Magnet makers (non-Chinese)

• Hitachi Metals / Proterial (Japan)
• TDK (Japan)
• Shin-Etsu (Japan)
• Neo Performance Materials (Canada/EU)
• VAC / Vacuumschmelze (Germany)
• MP Materials Stage III (US, ramping)

What to watch monthly

• NdPr oxide price (Trading Economics, Argus, Metal.com)
• China MofCom announcements (export control expansions)
• US DoD / DoE awards for rare earth projects
• MP Materials + Lynas quarterly updates (capacity ramp,

offtake contracts)

• EV production data (NdFeB is ~1 kg per EV)
• Offshore wind installation data (IEA, GWEC)
• Defence appropriations touching rare earth magnets

Cross-references

• Reports: docs/minerals/reports/YYYY-MM-neodymium.md
• Related: when covered later, add dossiers for Dysprosium

+ Terbium (the heavy REE partners of Nd in high-spec magnets)