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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If South Africa mining (83% of global) halts: 4 substitutes cover 100% of non-ZA capacity · fastest ramp 6-12mo (RU) · highest policy-risk: RU (score 0, 0 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Mining (minor-PGM mine production, Rh + Ir combined) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS MCS 2026 (PGMs) + Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report pattern — combined Rh+Ir basis, approx pending exact survey cite.
Post-removal HHI = 3,516 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m rhodium-iridium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
The sharpest non-Chinese chokepoint in the register: rhodium (~23 t/yr) and iridium (~8 t/yr) are FIXED-RATIO by-products of South African platinum mining — supply cannot scale independently of Pt economics, and ~83% flows from one geological formation (Bushveld) on one strained power grid (Eskom). Iridium is the irreplaceable anode coating for PEM electrolysers — the entire green-hydrogen buildout bottlenecks on ~8 t/yr. Rhodium is the NOx-catalyst metal (peaked ~$29,000/oz in 2021). Neither has an exchange: prices are set OTC (Johnson Matthey base prices). Chokepoint = Pretoria, not Beijing — scored under the all-chokepoints rule (2026-07-13).