Loading…
Loading…
The chokepoint sits downstream: 69% mining share (CN) concentrates to 97% at refining, with China's share rising from 69% to 97%. Refining is a single point of failure: 🇨🇳 CN controls 97%.
Samarium is the S in SmCo permanent magnets — the defence/space-grade magnet family chosen over NdFeB for temperature stability and corrosion resistance (missile fin actuators, satellite mechanisms, aviation).
Economy at stake: a cut-off by CN would take $4.5bn off US GDP (USGS puts that scenario at 100% probability; weighted, $4.5bn). Samarium, USGS Open-File Report 2025-1047 input-output model over 402 US industries, 2023 dollars. US economy only and a model estimate, not an observation. Source.
| Stage | Companies | US output 2023 | Most exposed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mining, refining, trading | 6 | 0.16% | MP Materials Corp., NioCorp Developments, Dexter Magnetic Technologies |
| Functional goods (magnets, chemicals, cells, components) | 0 | 0.4–0.7% | |
| Industries that depend on them | 1 | 4.9–5.4% | TESAT-Spacecom GmbH & Co. KG |
Counted from our company dossiers and recomputed on every load. Stage is inferred from each company’s role and sector, and this counts companies, not output. US output share: the ECB’s mapping of industries to stages (Occasional Paper No. 384, Table A1) applied to BEA supply tables, 2017 detail carried forward to 2023 by each industry’s summary-level growth; the range drops low-intensity industries. Stage 3 over time: 2017 5.9% · 2018 6.1% · 2019 5.7% · 2020 4.9% · 2021 5.1% · 2022 5.6% · 2023 5.4%. The ECB publishes 0.1% / 0.4–0.7% / 3.7–6.3%, and estimates an 18-month partial Chinese restriction at 0.3–0.6% of US output (18 months of partial Chinese export restrictions, severity scaled by the authors' geopolitical-distance assumption; model output, not observation); source.
$7.5bn of output at risk worldwide, 2.08× the $3.6bn first-round loss. US $967M, EU $2.1bn. Other suppliers: MM $2.6bn · JP $1.5bn.
| Where it bites hardest | At risk | of its output | Named here |
|---|---|---|---|
| VN · Electrical equipment | $91M | 0.34% | none in our corpus yet |
| SI · Electrical equipment | $15M | 0.33% | Domel d.o.o. |
| HU · Electrical equipment | $32M | 0.23% | none in our corpus yet |
| PL · Electrical equipment | $43M | 0.14% | none in our corpus yet |
| VN · Motor vehicles | $11M | 0.13% | none in our corpus yet |
| DE · Electrical equipment | $166M | 0.12% | aerodyn Engineering GmbH, Enercon GmbH, AMK Arnold Müller GmbH & Co. KG |
| MX · Electrical equipment | $51M | 0.12% | none in our corpus yet |
| MY · Electrical equipment | $12M | 0.12% | none in our corpus yet |
Output at risk if CN’s $3.6bn of exports stop, propagated through every country and industry: OECD ICIO 2025 edition (released Aug 2025, revised Jan 2026), 2022 structure, BACI 2024 flows, supply-side (Ghosh) input-output model. No substitution and no inventories, so this is an upper-bound exposure, not a forecast loss; USGS’s price-based estimate above answers a different question. Amplification by year: 2016 2.06× · 2017 2.03× · 2018 2.04× · 2019 2.04× · 2020 2.03× · 2021 2.05× · 2022 2.08×. Rare earths as one chain: compounds and metals (HS 2846, 280530) plus permanent magnets (HS 850511, which also includes SmCo and AlNiCo). Named companies: dossiers headquartered there, in a matching sector, already exposed to this material.
Eurostat Comext imports (tonnes) and EU27 industrial production, 12 months before the disruption against the months since, refreshed monthly. Descriptive, not causal: prices, seasons and other shocks move the same series, and only a control supplier the cause does not touch isolates it.
Policy pressure on Samarium is accelerating — 48 restrictive actions on record, peak severity 5, 25 in the last 12 months (vs 9 the year before). Most-active issuer: 🇨🇳 CN (13).
Signals are read directly from the policy register's recorded cadence, pending effective dates, and responds_to cycles for Samarium. They describe the trajectory already on the record — not a forecast.
Tickers and corporate names parsed from the company_refs field of every action whose target_materials includes samarium — the specific operators a policymaker identified by name. Click a company to see the filings.