[2]Trade ↑ Macro ↓ Policy— Trade: procurement decision frame

silicon[Si]— procurement outlook

IPTM exposure77.6(37 actions, sev × 5y recency)

The procurement-decision view of /minerals/silicon. Six panels: supplier concentration, jurisdictional sourcing split, recent policy actions affecting supply, modal next 12-month policy moves by bloc, procurement-channel pointers, and price-reference sources. Optimised for the strategic-materials director deciding contract structure (lock vs float) and inventory level (buffer vs not) under policy uncertainty.

30-second read

[refining] Top supplier is China at 80% — concentration is extreme (HHI 6498).
Western-OEM-accessible refined share (EU + NA + JP/KR/AU/TW): 18%; EU + NA alone 12%; China 80%.
22 IPTM actions hit this material in the last 24 months. Most-load-bearing: China MOFCOM Preliminary Anti-Dumping Ruling on Japanese Dichlorosilane (DCS) Imports.

1 · Supplier concentration

refining · 2025 · USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026

#	Country	Share
1	CNChina	80.0%
2	DEGermany	7.0%
3	USUnited States	5.0%
4	KRSouth Korea	4.0%
5	JPJapan	2.0%

CN Western-accessible Other

2 · Sourcing split by jurisdiction

Refined-output share grouped by procurement-access bucket. “Western-OEM accessible” = EU + NA + JP/KR/AU/TW. China and sanctioned origins (RU/IR/KP/BY/MM) require licensing or carve-outs.

Western-OEM accessible (EU + NA + JP/KR/AU/TW)

18%

· of which EU + NA alone

12%

China

80%

Sanctioned origins (RU/IR/KP/BY/MM)

Other / Tier-3 emerging

Unlisted tail (small producers, ROW)

If China were disrupted, remaining listed producers (% of non-CN listed capacity — not a sanctions filter; sanctioned origins below are not a viable Western-buyer substitute regardless of share):

DEGermany39%USUnited States28%KRSouth Korea22%JPJapan11%

3 · Recent IPTM actions (last 24 months)

ranked by sev × 5y-recency, grouped by issuer

China1 action

2026-09-07China MOFCOM Preliminary Anti-Dumping Ruling on Japanese Dichlorosilane (DCS) ImportsTariff

United States3 actions

2026-09-22US BIS temporary final rule restricting polysilicon stockpiling ahead of Proclamation 11052 Section 232 tariffs and minimum import pricesRegulatory
2025-11-06US DOI / USGS Final 2025 List of Critical MineralsRegulatory
2025-12-22US Department of War invests $18.5M DPA Title III funds in Lattice Materials to expand germanium and silicon optics productionSubsidy

European Union10 actions

2026-02-05EU / GermanySubsidy
2025-12-17EU / HungarySubsidy
2026-06-03EU Chips Act 2.0Industrial policy
2026-03-02EU / FranceSubsidy
2026-02-12France PPE3Industrial policy

South Korea1 action

2026-01-29South Korea Semiconductor Special Act: presidential commission, master plan, and KRW 2tn special account for full chip supply chainIndustrial policy

Other7 actions

2026-02-01India Semiconductor Mission 2.0: Union Budget 2026-27 launch with INR 1,000 crore FY26-27 BE provision and ~INR 1-1.2 lakh crore proposed total outlayIndustrial policy
2025-09-23India DGFT Notification 31/2025-26Export control
2026-04-09India Dholera SEZ notification: 66.166-ha sector-specific SEZ for Tata Semiconductor's first Indian chip fab (~INR 91,000 crore / ~USD 11bn)Industrial policy
2025-02-01India National Manufacturing Mission announced in Union Budget 2025-26Industrial policy
2025-01-29India Cabinet approves National Critical Mineral Mission with ₹34,300 cr seven-year outlay covering 30 mineralsIndustrial policy

4 · Modal next 12-month policy moves

read from issuer history, not a forecast model

For each bloc that has filed on this material historically: most-common action type and median lag between consecutive filings. Use as a heuristic ceiling on when the next escalation is likely — not a forecast. Substitute with the explicit retaliation-callout when that component lands.

Bloc	Filings	Modal type	Median lag	Most recent
China	2	Tariff	1729d	2026-09-07
United States	5	Regulatory	411d	2026-09-22
European Union	16	Subsidy	58d	2026-06-03
Japan	2	Subsidy	682d	2024-02-24
South Korea	2	Industrial policy	1036d	2026-01-29
Other	10	Industrial policy	131d	2026-04-09

5 · Procurement channels

Minor-metals procurement is not a tender or exchange market: it runs through specialist trading houses and a small number of price publishers. Volumes too small for direct refiner contracts move through these intermediaries.

Traxys (Luxembourg, private; largest specialist trader; inventory holder + counterparty across the full minor-metals universe)
Wogen plc (London, private; minor-metals + rare-earth specialist; spot-trade facilitator)
Tradium (Frankfurt, private; closely aligned to German Mittelstand customers)
Lipmann Walton (UK, private; minor-metals + ferro-alloys)
Strategic Metal Invest (UK; investor-facing minor-metals stockholding)

See the full minor-metals procurement-channels reference for trader-by-trader detail, the three price publishers, the direct-refiner-contract threshold, and a channel-selection cheat-sheet by annual spend.

6 · Price references

MacroLens does not republish minor-metals spot prices — the major publishers run paywalled subscription benchmarks. These are the three benchmarks every procurement desk uses; subscribe directly.

Asian Metal — daily Chinese-domestic + FOB China benchmarks; ~$10-20k/yr full access; widest minor-metals coverage.
Argus Metals — OPIS-style; deeper Western-hub benchmarks; higher subscription.
Fastmarkets MB (ex-Metal Bulletin) — most-expensive of the three; broadest LME-adjacent + minor-metals coverage; sets many contract reference prices.

Loading…

minerals/silicon/procurement-outlook