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Exchange-visible warehouse stock only — a floor on world inventory, never a total. State reserves, producer and consumer inventories, and all off-exchange holdings are disclosed by nobody. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (data release).
Sulfur appears on NEITHER the EU CRMA (34-material) nor the USGS (50-material) critical list — both bodies classify on long-run structural scarcity criteria, and sulfur is abundant.
China is counted in this figure. Its annual declaration is UN Comtrade with China as reporter (primary, and the basis of the percentage above, which uses an annual denominator). The monthly bilateral series is a third-party republisher of GACC, not primary — top-partner agreement against China’s own declaration is 24/33 on imports and 15/33 on exports. UN Comtrade’s own China monthly series (not the republisher above) has been frozen at period 202412 since its release; a watcher flags the day it moves.
Denominator: UN Comtrade annual 2024, imports from World, 52 reporters (Taiwan absent from UN data entirely). Read the percentage above as “the importers on this panel are on file”, never as “we see the trade” — Taiwan is absent from UN data entirely, so it is never in this denominator and the true gap is larger than shown.
How much of China’s exports we see monthly: ≈117% of China’s non-EU exports — importer declarations from ID, BR, CA, US, IN, TH in the monthly feed (202608), annualised against BACI 2024. EU destinations (AT, CZ, DE, DK, ES, NL, PT) are seen separately through Eurostat Comext in EUR and are kept out of this ratio rather than converted. Not in our reporter set: ZM (12% of China's 2024 exports), Myanmar (3% of China's 2024 exports), GT (2% of China's 2024 exports), Vietnam (1% of China's 2024 exports), Cambodia (1% of China's 2024 exports), Uzbekistan (1% of China's 2024 exports) — national customs portals, not Chinese hosts; each is a route that can be wired. Above 100% means 2026 monthly volumes exceed the 2024 annual base or an HS basket was widened; it is shown unclipped on purpose.
Source: CEPII BACI HS22 2024 (reconciled from UN Comtrade annual; CIF/FOB harmonised). Annual and one to two years behind — structure, not a current figure; never summed with the monthly rows above. Includes Taiwan (BACI 490), which no monthly artifact here carries.
Source: Eurostat Comext monthly bulk, CN8 × partner × declarant (2 CN8 codes: 25030010, 25030090). Values in EUR, declarant-side — a different basis from the USD/HS6 figures elsewhere on this page. Not summable with them.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (public domain). Production and reserves are world shares of the USGS-published world total. Stocks, price and net import reliance are United States salient series — never world figures. Reserves are a single-year snapshot; USGS does not restate history, so a reserves trend needs each year’s file archived separately.
| Stage | Companies | Most exposed |
|---|---|---|
| Mining, refining, trading | 22 | Aurubis AG, ICL Group Ltd, 5E Advanced Materials, Inc. |
| Functional goods (magnets, chemicals, cells, components) | 11 | Precheza a.s., Prayon SA, Tessenderlo Group |
| Industries that depend on them | 3 | Goodyear Dunlop Sava Tires, Trelleborg AB, Linglong Tire (Zrenjanin plant) |
Counted from our company dossiers and recomputed on every load. Stage is inferred from each company’s role and sector, and this counts companies, not output.
$2.2bn of output at risk worldwide, 2.02× the $1.1bn first-round loss. US $20M, EU $95M. Other suppliers: QA $1.2bn · SA $1.0bn.
| Where it bites hardest | At risk | of its output | Named here |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA · Glass, ceramics, cement | $173M | 4.63% | none in our corpus yet |
| MA · Construction | $368M | 1.92% | none in our corpus yet |
| MA · Other mining | $75M | 1.87% | OCP Group |
| MA · Iron & steel | $28M | 1.29% | none in our corpus yet |
| TN · Glass, ceramics, cement | $14M | 1.14% | none in our corpus yet |
| SN · Chemicals | $12M | 0.93% | none in our corpus yet |
| SN · Construction | $18M | 0.61% | none in our corpus yet |
| MA · Chemicals | $76M | 0.61% | none in our corpus yet |
Output at risk if AE’s $1.1bn of exports stop, propagated through every country and industry: OECD ICIO 2025 edition (released Aug 2025, revised Jan 2026), 2022 structure, BACI 2024 flows, supply-side (Ghosh) input-output model. No substitution and no inventories, so this is an upper-bound exposure, not a forecast loss; USGS’s price-based estimate above answers a different question. Amplification by year: 2016 2.02× · 2017 2.04× · 2018 2.06× · 2019 2.01× · 2020 2.05× · 2021 2.04× · 2022 2.02×. Named companies: dossiers headquartered there, in a matching sector, already exposed to this material.
Eurostat Comext imports (tonnes) and EU27 industrial production, 12 months before the disruption against the months since, refreshed monthly. Descriptive, not causal: prices, seasons and other shocks move the same series, and only a control supplier the cause does not touch isolates it.
Read against the card above: the EU buys 43% of its sulfur from outside the Union and produces it in 5 member states.
Also produced: Crude or unrefined sulphur (ore) · Sulphur, sublimed, precipitated, colloid (refined)
Source: Eurostat PRODCOM DS-059358, sold production by member state, EUR. Production, not trade — a different basis from the import figures above and never summed with them. Producers exclude states that only trade the code, and exclude non-EU27 reporters (PRODCOM also carries Iceland, Norway and candidate countries).
Source: China Data Portal (chinadata.live), an independent third-party republisher of GACC customs data — not primary GACC, methodology not disclosed by the operator. Cross-validated once against our own BACI 2024 extraction; treat as directionally reliable, not audited. Never summed with the flows or totals below.
Policy pressure on Sulfur is accelerating — 3 restrictive actions on record, peak severity 4, 1 in the last 12 months (vs 0 the year before). Most-active issuer: 🇹🇷 TR (3).
Signals are read directly from the policy register's recorded cadence, pending effective dates, and responds_to cycles for Sulfur. They describe the trajectory already on the record — not a forecast.