China's gallium–germanium retaliation cycle

5 of 5 linked actions resolved

2022-10-07 → 2024-12-03 · 788d · 5 actions · 2 swimlanes

Reflex compression: 269d → 1d (269× faster)

Reflex time between US semiconductor controls and matching Chinese mineral retaliation compressed from ~9 months (2022–2023) to 24 hours (2024) — the structural signal is the cadence, not any single ban.

Export controlradius = severity · ↑ arrows = responds_to

How to read: Each column is one issuer (e.g. US BIS, CN MOFCOM, EU Council). Top-to-bottom is time forward. Each dot is one policy action; its size encodes severity (1–5) and its colour encodes type (legend above). Solid arrows point from a later action up to the earlier action it explicitly responds_to:; the label on the arrow is the reflex time in days. The anchor action of the regime is outlined with a dashed halo.

Actions in this regime

2022-10-07USExport controlsev 5US BIS imposes advanced-AI chip and equipment export controls on China 2023-07-03CNExport controlsev 4China imposes export licensing on gallium and germanium products 2023-10-17USExport controlsev 5US BIS expands advanced-chip controls — closes H800 workaround, adds tooling, broadens regional scope 2024-12-02USExport controlsev 5US BIS Dec-2024 package — HBM export controls, 24 SME ECCNs, 140+ Entity List adds 2024-12-03CNExport controlsev 4★China bans dual-use exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the US

Other regimes

CBAM as a policy-architecture export The EU–Russia sanctions architecture forked

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← Themes

[3]Policy ↑ Trade ↓ Market— curated policy regime — causal-chain visualizer

Regime · 2024-china-ga-ge-retaliation-cycle