Indonesia Permendag 8/2025 — third amendment to Permendag 22/2023: export-prohibited-goods list revision with hilirisasi force-majeure copper-concentrate pathway

Mechanism

Permendag 8/2025 amends the appendix of Permendag 22/2023 — Indonesia's baseline export-prohibition framework — to update the list of goods categorically prohibited from export and to introduce the first structured force-majeure relief valve within the hilirisasi downstream-processing doctrine.

The seven commodity categories maintained or revised by this Third Amendment are:

1. Forestry — wood and bamboo products remain prohibited; Indonesia's long-running ban on raw log and sawn-timber exports continues to drive domestic wood-processing industries. 2. Agriculture — natural rubber, porang (konjac), rice, and kratom remain on the prohibited list; eel (Anguilla spp.) was separated into a companion regulation (Permendag 9/2025) focused on species-conservation grounds. 3. Subsidised fertilisers — nitrogen-containing mineral and chemical fertilisers (including urea) remain export-prohibited to protect domestic agricultural supply (later formalised with expanded language in the Fourth Amendment, Permendag 6/2026). 4. Mining minerals — tin and minerals with general downstream-processing requirements remain prohibited, consistent with Indonesia's broader hilirisasi mandate requiring ore beneficiation before export. 5. Cultural heritage — antique items and historical collections remain prohibited for export. 6. Metal waste and scrap — iron and steel materials remain export-prohibited to supply domestic electric-arc furnace and re-rolling industries. 7. Marine sedimentation products — sea sand and marine sludge remain prohibited (export ban on sea sand reinstated in 2023 reversed the 2002 policy).

The structurally novel element in Permendag 8/2025 is the hilirisasi force-majeure copper-concentrate export pathway. Indonesia's copper concentrate export ban has been in place since 2023 under Permendag 22/2023 as amended by Permendag 10/2024 — requiring full domestic smelting before export. This Amendment acknowledges that some companies have invested capital to build compliant smelters but cannot operate them due to unforeseen force-majeure events. Rather than imposing a blanket penalty (which would deter future capital investment in processing infrastructure), the regulation creates a documented relief pathway: a company must demonstrate completed construction, documented force-majeure event, and obtain Ministry of Trade approval for a time-limited export licence covering copper concentrate ≥15% Cu content.

Companion regulation Permendag 9/2025 (enacted same date) addresses species-conservation export controls for eel (Anguilla spp.) and kratom grinding-machine capacity validation — both were previously bundled with the broader prohibited-goods list and are now separated into a species-focused instrument.

Downstream implications

• Hilirisasi continuity: The Third Amendment documents the March 2025 state of the prohibited-goods architecture immediately before the Fourth Amendment (Permendag 6/2026). Together they show the regulatory trajectory: mineral bans tighten, agricultural controls evolve, copper-concentrate relief valve is created but narrowly scoped.
• Copper concentrate supply chain: The force-majeure pathway is specifically designed for Freeport Indonesia (Grasberg, Papua) and PT Amman Mineral's Batu Hijau/Elang operations — both had ongoing smelter construction commitments under their special mining licences (IUPK). Any force-majeure claim requires Ministry of Trade approval, limiting the pathway to genuine disruptions rather than commercial convenience.
• Predecessor-successor architecture: This Third Amendment (March 2025) is directly superseded by the Fourth Amendment (Permendag 6/2026, March 2026) on the nitrogen-fertiliser and rice categories; the copper-concentrate force-majeure pathway persists into the Fourth Amendment's framework.
• Sea-sand export ban: The sea-sand prohibition reflects continued sensitivity around ASEAN coastal-dredging sourcing (Singapore reclamation demand), with Indonesia maintaining a ban on all sea-sand exports regardless of volume or end use.

Open questions

• Whether any company successfully invoked the force-majeure copper-concentrate pathway between March 2025 and March 2026, and how many export licences were granted under it, is not publicly disclosed.
• The regulatory instrument governing the approval process (which Directorate General issues force-majeure certificates, what documentation is required, maximum licence duration) is expected in implementing guidelines (Peraturan Dirjen Daglu) not yet publicly indexed.
• Permendag 9/2025 (companion regulation on species-conservation export controls) should be assessed separately for IPTM relevance if kratom or eel supply chains become material to any monitored company's exposure.