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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Textbook EU trade-defence sequence: a single EU producer (Lanxess, the sole significant domestic maker of PBTC-type phosphonates) files a complaint alleging Chinese dumping; the Commission initiates a proceeding (18 Sep 2025); roughly eight months later a provisional duty is imposed pending a definitive determination (typically due within ~13-14 months of initiation under EU AD Basic Regulation timelines). The 182.9%-219.4% range is unusually steep even by EU anti-dumping standards — comparable to the China graphite-electrode and China aluminium-foil cases rather than the more typical 15-40% range seen in bulk commodity chemicals (cf. the EU biodiesel case at 10-35.6%, docs/iptm/actions/2025-02-10-eu-biodiesel-antidumping-china.md). Duties this high usually signal either a very low Chinese export price relative to domestic/third-country benchmark, or a small respondent pool with limited individual examination (only fully cooperating exporters typically earn a below-headline individual rate; non-cooperating producers get the residual "all other companies" rate at the top of the range).
PBTC is a niche specialty chemical (a phosphonate-based scale inhibitor and chelating agent), not a bulk commodity — the EU market is almost certainly a low-tens-of-millions-of-euro category, materially smaller than the biodiesel case (~€1.4bn). Severity is set at 3 (moderate) reflecting the very high ad-valorem rate offset by narrow product scope and limited macro trade-flow significance; this is a single-product niche action rather than a supply-chain-wide intervention.
at duties above 180%; EU buyers (water-treatment formulators, oilfield chemical blenders, detergent makers) will need to source from Lanxess or non-Chinese third-country suppliers, or pay the duty.
standard window (investigation initiated 18 Sep 2025 → provisional duty 12 May 2026 is already ~8 months in); expect a definitive-duty regulation (superseding or confirming these provisional rates) roughly 5-6 months after the provisional measure, per the EU biodiesel and phosphorous-acid precedents.
phosphorous acid from China (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/586, 18 Mar 2026, 122.8% duty, CN 2809 20 00) — different product, different CN code, different regulation; both are China-origin phosphorus-chemical trade-defence actions filed in the same window but are legally distinct proceedings.
floor vs. the 219.4% residual rate on the provisional measure, and the equivalent split on the 156.7%-192.2% definitive range) — not visible in the secondary sources reviewed; would require the full EUR-Lex regulation annex.
reviewed) — needed to properly scale trade-flow-weighted severity.
Update 2026-09-21: the definitive determination landed (see amendments: above) — Regulation (EU) 2026/2088 of 18 September 2026, 156.7%-192.2%, confirming the case for 5 years and definitively collecting the provisional duty. Resolved, no longer open.