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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
The Department of State's Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC) amends 22 CFR §126.1 (policy of denial / proscribed destinations) and related ITAR parts covering license exemptions and defense-trade cooperation. Three distinct changes are bundled into this one rule:
exports of defense articles/services to its armed forces, police, intelligence and internal-security forces, implementing a February 5, 2026 Secretary of State determination. This reverses the denial posture put in place during the 2020-22 Tigray war.
primary source text should be consulted for the exact provision changed; not independently confirmed beyond the Federal Register abstract at filing time).
Non-NATO Allies (Presidential determinations of January 13 and 14, 2026), which under the ITAR unlocks certain license exemptions, priority processing of license applications, and eligibility for cooperative defense R&D&T&E arrangements.
security-force end-users, reversing a multi-year denial posture tied to the Tigray conflict.
members (e.g., Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia), which typically accelerates FMS/DCS licensing timelines and expands license-exemption eligibility for US primes selling into both markets.
relaxations plus a Somalia policy update whose direction is not established here.
Rated 2 (qual): the rule discloses no tariff rate, quota, or trade-value figure — it is a licensing-policy and country-status change. Severity reflects a real but bounded shift in a small set of bilateral defense-trade relationships, not a broad sectoral or economy-wide measure.
Federal Register abstract names it but the secondary sources found at filing time only detail the Ethiopia and MNNA changes.
Saudi/Peru changes as commercially material.