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EU-China public-procurement market-access reciprocity cycle

Tit-for-tat restriction of public-procurement market access between the EU and China, running on a distinct legal track from the broader FSR/TIB dispute. Triggered by the EU's first-ever use of its International Procurement Instrument (IPI) on 20 June 2025 to exclude Chinese medical-device firms from EU tenders above EUR 5m; China's Ministry of Finance responded with Caiku [2025] No. 19, excluding EU firms (ex-China-invested subsidiaries) from Chinese medical-device procurement above CNY 45m and capping EU-import content for other bidders at 50%. Tracks further escalation or de-escalation in either direction.

2 actionspeak severity 4· 2 countries targeted· 2 sectors· 2 issuers· avg sev 3.5· span 1mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 1 response chain detected across 2 issuer→target vectors, median lag 13d, most-likely next riposte target sector = medical-devices from EU→CN.

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1EU→CNbase sev 4L 84· 1 triggersee all in register →

why1/1 triggers had Y→X responses, median lag 13d

likely riposte sectorsmedical-devices1public-procurement1

historical analoguesJun 2025→Jul 2025(13d, Tariff)

2CN→EUbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.

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