home/actions/themes/eu-myanmar-sanctions-perimeter EU Myanmar/Burma restrictive measures perimeter — post-2021-coup architecture
The European Union restrictive measures framework established under Council Decision 2013/184/CFSP and substantively expanded following the February 2021 SAC military coup in Myanmar/Burma. Covers asset freezes, travel bans, an arms embargo, and service prohibitions targeting individuals and entities linked to the junta — including Myanmar Mining Enterprise No. 1 and No. 2, which are the dominant state-controlled rare-earth and tin extraction actors. Distinct from the parallel US Burma sanctions perimeter (EO 14014 / 31 CFR Part 525, tracked in us-burma-sanctions-perimeter), though both programmes target the same mining enterprises. This theme captures EU-side instruments: Council Decisions amending 2013/184/CFSP, implementing regulations amending (EU) No 401/2013, and Council statements on allied alignment with EU measures.
1 actionpeak severity 2· 1 countries targeted· 3 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 2.0
Forecast claim
In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 1 issuer→target vector.
Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.