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Russia counter-sanctions and import-substitution regime

Russia's domestic regulatory response to the 2022+ Western sanctions wave: instruments that suspend pre-existing commercial-law obligations toward 'unfriendly states', legalise grey-market parallel imports of restricted goods, and accelerate domestic / friendly-country substitution. Distinct from the Western-side enforcement theme (which captures the sanctions themselves).

33 actionspeak severity 5· 20 countries targeted· 59 sectors· 2 issuers· avg sev 2.7· span 95mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 27 issuer→target vectors.

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1RU→USbase sev 5L 35· 5 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

2RU→JPbase sev 5L 26· 2 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

3RU→FRbase sev 4L 25· 3 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

4RU→GBbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

5RU→EUbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

6RU→CAbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

7RU→AUbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

8RU→KRbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

9RU→CHbase sev 5L 23· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

10BY→EUbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

+17 vectors below cap · click to expand

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.