What it captures
The cluster of bilateral trade-prohibition and transit-ban instruments deployed inside South Asia during 2019–2026, principally between India and Pakistan. The core mechanism is national customs or external-trade legislation (Pakistan's Imports and Exports (Control) Act 1950, India's Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act 1992) used to interdict bilateral commerce and, in the 2025 escalation, third-country transit flows that touch the issuing country's territory or jurisdiction.
Why it matters
South Asian intra-regional trade is already among the lowest of any major region (~5% of total trade vs. >20% for ASEAN), and bilateral suspensions of this kind have historically proved persistent: India's post-Pulwama 2019 measures held across two changes of government, and Pakistan's SRO 750 was retained even after the 10 May 2025 ceasefire. The downstream effect is structural rerouting of South Asian trade through Colombo, Salalah, Jebel Ali, and Singapore, sustained pressure on shipping economics for Karachi and Port Qasim, and dormancy of the SAARC trade-preferences framework.
Pattern to watch
Whether the Pakistan SRO 750 perimeter is widened (e.g., explicit in-scope CPEC/Karakoram flows, or formal extension to Afghan transit), and whether India responds with a reciprocal extra- territorial transit prohibition. Equally, whether a future ceasefire or political settlement triggers narrowing or rescission of the SRO — historical base rate suggests this is unlikely on the multi-year horizon.