home/actions/themes/south-asia-bilateral-trade-suspension South Asia bilateral trade-suspension architecture
Bilateral trade prohibitions and transit bans imposed between major South Asian economies — most prominently the India–Pakistan freeze that began with India's 2019 MFN withdrawal after Pulwama and that escalated in May 2025 with Pakistan's SRO 750 banning Indian-origin imports, third-country transit, and exports to India through Pakistani territory. Distinct from us-iran-maximum-pressure (US sanctions on a single named adversary) and from western-russia-sanctions (multi-jurisdictional collective sanctions): this theme captures the residual, statute-based, bilateral and extra-territorial-transit prohibitions that two neighbours impose on each other in episodes of geopolitical confrontation, and that tend to persist as structural features long after the precipitating crisis.
5 actionspeak severity 3· 3 countries targeted· 8 sectors· 3 issuers· avg sev 2.8· span 4mo
Forecast claim
In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 4 issuer→target vectors.
Isolated to
IN→PK ·
clear isolateRanked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.