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US BIS anti-boycott EAR regulatory architecture

US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regulatory actions under the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) Part 760 anti-boycott provisions. Covers: amendments to Supplement No. 1 to Part 760 (the list of countries requiring cooperation with an international boycott, principally the Arab League Boycott of Israel); civil-penalty and enforcement-guidance actions specific to Part 760; and Abraham Accords-linked regulatory de-listing as participating Gulf and MENA states formally terminate boycott participation. Distinct from the arms-embargo D:5 theme (which tracks Country Group designation changes) and from the broader sanctions-enforcement theme (which covers OFAC/OFSI monetary penalties).

2 actionspeak severity 2· 1 countries targeted· 1 issuer· avg sev 2.0· span 16mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 1 issuer→target vector.

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1US→AEbase sev 2L 11· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.

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