home/actions/themes/us-burma-sanctions-perimeter US Burma sanctions perimeter — post-2021-coup architecture
The U.S. Burma sanctions perimeter constructed in response to the February 2021 SAC military coup, anchored in Executive Order 14014 (10 February 2021, 'Blocking Property With Respect to the Situation in Burma') and its operationalising directives, determinations, and humanitarian carve-outs. Distinct from us-iran-maximum-pressure (different country perimeter, different policy lineage from the JCPOA), from us-cuba-sanctions-architecture (Cuba-specific easing-then-tightening arc), and from post-assad-syria-sanctions-restructuring (Syria's perimeter is being narrowed while Burma's is being calibrated and expanded). Captures Treasury's deliberate calibration between civil-society pressure for full asset-blocking on Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) and the LNG-supply spillover risk to Thailand and ASEAN — yielding the half-measure Directive 1 architecture rather than full SDN listing, paired with humanitarian general licenses on the post-2022 OFAC template.
11 actionspeak severity 4· 9 countries targeted· 23 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 3.0· span 55mo
Forecast claim
In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 9 issuer→target vectors.
Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.