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US Iran maximum-pressure architecture

US sanctions and export-control architecture targeting Iran's economy under the rubric of nuclear-program containment, missile-development denial, regional-influence rollback, and financial-sector isolation. Distinct from the post-2024 US trade reset (which is tariff-led and broader-front) and from western-russia-sanctions (which is a different perimeter): this theme captures the US-Iran-specific sanctions stack — E.O. 13902 sectoral determinations, NSPM-2 maximum-pressure restoration, EO 14382 secondary-tariff authority, OFAC SDN waves, and BIS Entity-List diversion controls — which collectively price-isolate Iran's banks, oil-export logistics, and trade-finance counterparties.

55 actionspeak severity 5· 46 countries targeted· 68 sectors· 2 issuers· avg sev 3.4· span 73mo

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 2 response chains detected across 47 issuer→target vectors, median lag 600d, most-likely next riposte target sector = oil-gas from US→CN.

Isolated to US→HK · clear isolate

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1US→CNbase sev 5L 40· 19 triggerssee all in register →

why1/19 triggers had Y→X responses, median lag 452d

likely riposte sectorsoil-gas1refining1petrochemicals1

historical analoguesFeb 2025→May 2026(452d, Sanction)

2US→TRbase sev 4L 36· 12 triggerssee all in register →

why1/12 triggers had Y→X responses, median lag 748d

likely riposte sectorsdefence1dual-use1

historical analoguesFeb 2024→Mar 2026(748d, Export control)

3US→HKbase sev 5L 35· 13 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

4US→IRbase sev 5L 35· 43 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

5US→AEbase sev 5L 35· 24 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

6US→INbase sev 5L 35· 7 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

7US→MHbase sev 5L 35· 7 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

8US→LRbase sev 5L 35· 6 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 5 + sector continuity 0%

9US→PKbase sev 4L 31· 6 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

10US→SGbase sev 4L 31· 8 triggerssee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 4 + sector continuity 0%

+37 vectors below cap · click to expand

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.