home/actions/themes/us-tco-sanctions-perimeter US transnational criminal organizations sanctions architecture — EO 13581/13863 and TCOSR regulatory perimeter
US Treasury/OFAC sanctions architecture targeting significant transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), anchored in Executive Order 13581 (July 24, 2011, 'Blocking Property of Transnational Criminal Organizations') and Executive Order 13863 (March 15, 2019), and codified at 31 CFR Part 590. The theme captures the regulatory framework underpinning OFAC's authority to block property of designated TCOs and their associates. Distinct from us-counter-narcotics-sanctions (which captures the separate EO 14059 / 31 CFR Part 599 drug-trade perimeter) and from us-counter-terrorism-sanctions (EO 13224/13886 / GTSR). The TCO perimeter targets organizations such as the Brothers' Circle, Camorra, Yakuza, Los Zetas, and MS-13 that combine criminal enterprise, corruption, and violence at a transnational scale.
3 actionspeak severity 2· 3 countries targeted· 6 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 2.0· span 46mo
Forecast claim
In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 3 issuer→target vectors.
Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.