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US Venezuela oil-sector sanctions architecture — EO 13850 perimeter

US Treasury/OFAC sanctions targeting persons and vessels operating in Venezuela's oil sector under Executive Order 13850 (2018, 'Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Venezuela'). Distinct from ve-sanctions-countermeasure-architecture (which tracks Venezuela's own domestic legal response to sanctions) and from us-iran-maximum-pressure / us-counter-narcotics-sanctions (which capture Iran-nexus and narcotics-nexus designations that sometimes co-occur with Venezuela designees in the same press release but rest on different legal authorities). This theme captures the oil-sector-specific perimeter: shipping-company and tanker designations for shadow-fleet logistics moving Venezuelan crude, and related PDVSA-linked facilitator designations.

1 actionpeak severity 3· 1 countries targeted· 2 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 3.0

view:default · timeline + chronology retaliation forecast

Forecast claim

In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 1 issuer→target vector.

Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted

1US→VEbase sev 3L 15· 1 triggersee all in register →

whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 3 + sector continuity 0%

Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.

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