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1 critical material scored · binding chokepoint: Nickel (🇨🇳 CN 36% of refining) · 29 restrictive government measures on record
Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation produces 1 of the 1 scored material above (Nickel). For those, a supply restriction by the controlling country is a tailwind, not a headwind — the exposure is to disruption of a market this company supplies, not to a chokepoint it depends on. Every scored material here sits on its output side, so the Elevated · 55/100 band should be read as chokepoint salience, not as buyer vulnerability, and the Art. 24 input-side duties below are qualified accordingly.
Role from an explicit dossier role: tag or the producer-sector classifier behind the /minerals alternatives bench (one classifier on disk, generated 2026-10-07) — the same source the company page uses. A material the classifier has no entry for defaults to a buyer dependency, which can understate a producer's output side. Descriptive classification only: it enters no score.
The binding exposure is Nickel — 🇨🇳 CN controls 36% of global refining. On this company's production footprint that scores 55/100 (neutral exposure; global 55). The register holds 29 restrictive government measures touching this company's materials — each traced to its primary source below.
Peer rank · Nickel Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation is the 628th-most-exposed of the 743 named companies we track on 🇨🇳 CN's Nickel chokepoint; the most-exposed is MagREEsource (64/100). Ranked on the same footprint-adjusted buyer score as above — a relative read of an existing metric, not a new one.
Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation ranks 317th of 453 verified mining metals companies, tied with 33 others at 55.
Same sector_primary, ranked on the company supply-risk index. Restricted to hand-verified dossiers — 127 further mining metals companies are tracked but auto-onboarded, and excluded here because their exposure list is a sector template rather than company research. A peer scoring lower is the useful read: it usually means a different production geography or a qualified second source.
Company supply-risk index 55/100 — the binding chokepoint dominates, with a modest add for exposure breadth across 1 scored material. Buyer-relative (first-order): weighted by where the company produces (PH 100%, estimated split — no cited source states these exact shares), applied across all materials — it does not yet trace each input to its specific sourcing step.
Disclosed production sites
Named plants and what they make, from the company's disclosures. Descriptive detail — the buyer score above is still driven by country-level footprint weights, not per-site material intensity.
> The exposure report this dossier powers is at > /intelligence/dossiers/marcventures-mining/report.
Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation (MMDC) is a Philippine nickel laterite miner and the wholly-owned operating subsidiary of PSE-listed Marcventures Holdings, Inc. It mines under Mineral Production Sharing Agreement No. 016-93-XIII, approved in July 1993 and covering 4,799 hectares across the municipalities of Cantilan, Carrascal and Madrid in Surigao del Sur. Commercial operations began in 2011, and in 2015 the company obtained an amended Environmental Compliance Certificate permitting extraction of up to 5.0 million wet metric tons of nickel laterite ore per year.
MMDC is a direct shipping ore (DSO) producer: it extracts nickel laterite and sells the ore itself to third parties without smelting, refining or beneficiating it into concentrate or intermediate product. Reported nickel output in 2020 was 1,027,405 dry metric tons of DSO valued at roughly PHP 1.66 billion; shipments were 1.42 million WMT in 2019 and 1.732 million WMT in 2020, against a 2.035 million WMT target for 2021. Its principal market is China, with reported efforts to open Japanese and other Asian buyers.
MMDC is an upstream producer, and an unusually simple one: the exposure below is what it supplies, and it is the only one.
profile: saprolite (higher nickel, lower iron) and limonite (lower nickel, higher iron). MHI's published resource disclosure puts the saprolite at roughly 3.2 million WMT averaging ~1.9% Ni and the limonite at roughly 62.2 million WMT averaging ~0.83% Ni and ~46% Fe — i.e. the great majority of the tonnage is low-grade, iron-rich limonite. As DSO with no processing step, the entire business is the nickel unit and the freight economics of moving bulk ore to Asian smelters. Concentration risk runs two ways: one permit area, and a customer base dominated by Chinese buyers.
Dropped from the sector default: cobalt, copper, chromium, manganese, aluminium, niobium and vanadium — all seven removed. Nothing found this pass attributes any of them to MMDC's product. Cobalt deserves an explicit note because it is the tempting one: limonitic laterite ore does typically carry cobalt, and a reader may expect it here. But MMDC sells unprocessed ore and publishes no cobalt grade, payable or shipment figure, and no reputable source located this pass reports one — so listing cobalt would be an inference from ore-type chemistry, not a finding about this company. Iron is not listed for a different reason: at ~46% Fe the limonite is genuinely iron-rich, but iron ore is not a scored material in this register (checked against the current SCORED_MATERIALS list in lib/minerals-supply-risk.ts), so there is no slug to carry it.
Our register records Philippines Republic Act 12253, the Enhanced Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Metallic Mining Act (announced 2025-09-04, effective 2026-02-17), which targets nickel among other materials and applies to large-scale metallic mining in the Philippines — the category MMDC's MPSA operation falls into. This is register-state: it is what we track, and it is not a statement about the totality of Philippine mining measures in force.
docs/iptm/actions/2025-09-04-philippines-ra-12253-enhanced-fiscal-regime-mining.mdRanked by buyer-relative risk, highest first.
0 of 1 of your scored CRMA-strategic material breach the EU’s own Art. 5 65% single-third-country ceiling (global-production proxy).
| Material | Controlled by | You | Global | Band | Art. 5 | Input share | Substitute | Laws | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickel | 🇨🇳 CN 36% refining | 55 | 55 | Elevated | within 36% | High | limited | 29 | ▲ rising |
You = buyer-relative score (this company's disclosed footprint vs. the controller). Global = buyer-agnostic supply risk. Substitute = ease of swapping the material out (none = locked in). Input share = the material's disclosed magnitude in the company's input basket (HIGH/MED/LOW only where a public filing quantifies it; — = unrated). Descriptive effect-size, never scored.
Art. 5 = does the global top single-country share breach the EU's own CRMA Art. 5 diversification ceiling (no more than 65% of a strategic raw material from a single third country)? A conservative global-production PROXY for the EU-import denominator — descriptive only, sits beside the score, never merged into it (— = non-strategic material). Reg. (EU) 2024/1252 Art. 5 ↗
Per-material factor scoring on a 1–5 likelihood×impact scale, mapped to the Art. 24(2)(b) risk-factor framework. The headline score above is a portfolio RAG; this matrix is the assessment — it is where two companies with the same binding chokepoint diverge.
| Material | Geopolitical | Concentration | Price / market | Substitutability | Import reliance | Logistics · ESG · Supplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickel | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | company input |
1 = very low … 5 = very high — a standard supply-risk likelihood×impact scale (the form a competent authority expects for the Art. 24(2)(b) factor analysis, not a CRMA-numbered scale). Public-source factors are pre-filled from the engine's primary sources (USGS concentration, IPTM government actions, EU import data); the three rightmost factor categories need company / Tier-1 supplier data and are flagged as input under Art. 24(3). Hover any cell for its evidence.
Every new filing and every amendment (rate change, scope change, repeal) touching this company's materials in the window above. Append ?since=YYYY-MM-DD to this URL for a custom start date.
Restrictive government measures on this company's materials, newest first — each links to its primary government source.
+ 14 more in the register.
The Art. 24(2)(c) vulnerability assessment, made explicit. For each leading exposure we model the move in this company's buyer-relative score under two distinct supply-disruption scenarios — the production footprint held fixed, only one lever moved at a time so each delta isolates one shock:
Under the 🇨🇳 CN shock, your disclosed plant carries the binding Nickel exposure:
Counterfactual: Indonesia extends the hilirisasi ore-ban template (2020 nickel → 2023 bauxite) to the next rung of battery-mineral exports — tightening upstream supply for cobalt intermediates, lithium feedstock and graphite alongside the existing nickel + aluminium regime. Direct-hit lines are basket issuers whose binding material is a battery-cell input (nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite) — irrespective of controller, since the template-export is global supply-chain pressure not bilateral targeting.
The binding exposure this precedent lands on — Nickel — is a material Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation produces, so this is an output-market event for this company, not a supply vulnerability. No modelled stressed delta is shown: the buyer-relative stress models a rising cost of an input, which is the wrong direction for a supplier of the material, and we would rather show no number than a wrong-signed one. It is never netted against the consumer-side levers in §6.4 — those are reported separately.
role: tag or the producer-sector classifier (one classifier on disk, generated 2026-10-07) — for this company the basis is a disclosed dossier tag. It enters no score.| Type | Scenario | Today | Stressed | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy | Nickel — 🇨🇳 CN escalates nickel controls to a full export-licensing / ban regime | 55 | 61 | +6 |
| Concentration | Nickel — 🇨🇳 CN becomes the single source for nickel — the second source is lost (full 36%+ monopoly) | 55 | 81 | +26 |
A zero delta means that lever is already modelled at maximum on that material — today's score already prices it in. This is why the two scenarios are shown together: where a material's policy lever is already maxed (zero policy delta), the concentration shock still carries a real delta, and vice-versa. Each stressed score isolates its one lever; all other factors are held at current values.
No material crosses the significant-vulnerability threshold on the input side — every scored material here is one Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation produces, and Art. 24 addresses the use of a strategic raw material as an input. The Art. 24(4) mitigation duty is not triggered on the public-source evidence; the mitigations below are precautionary.
Stated threshold (so the conclusion is reproducible and auditable): buyer-relative band ≥ High AND substitutability hard/none AND ≥ 1 in-force restrictive measure on the material, assessed over the 0 materials this company buys (the 1 it produces are excluded from the test and listed above). The CRMA does not fix a numeric definition of “significant”; the company may adopt a stricter or looser threshold and should record it here.
Proposed, announced or draft regulation that is not yet in force but would touch this company's at-risk materials if it passes. Forward-looking early-warning — the likelihood shown is an honest band derived from the legislative stage, not a forecast or a fabricated probability. Kept separate from the enacted register above: nothing here is law yet.
Bills at introduction (pre-committee) in US historically become law ~5% of the time (n=37,132, GovTrack — 117th–118th Congresses) — a base rate for comparable bills, not a forecast for this one. source ↗
Bills at out of committee in US historically become law ~21% of the time (n=1,687, GovTrack — 117th Congress (2021–2023)) — a base rate for comparable bills, not a forecast for this one. source ↗
Likelihood band is derived deterministically from the legislative stage (announced → low; draft-published / in-consultation → moderate; passed-committee → elevated; passed-vote / awaiting-signature → high) — a reproducible, source-traceable proxy, not a probability estimate. Where shown, the modelled impact-if-passed re-uses the same buyer-relative stress engine as the enacted scenarios above: it holds this company's production footprint fixed and escalates the proposed measure to a full export-licensing / control regime — the conservative upper bound for a measure that may pass only as a partial cap. The delta is the move from today's score to that stressed score; companies with no modelled production footprint show no delta.
Forward-looking read on the binding chokepoint, from the recent trajectory of policy on these materials. Directional, not a forecast.
Every scored material here is one Marcventures Mining and Development Corporation produces, so the Art. 24(4) buyer levers — qualify an alternative supplier, re-source, substitute the input — do not apply to this company. The output-side items below are what a concentrated producer's risk office actually acts on. We render them rather than a generic diversification list because a prescription addressed to the wrong side of the market is worse than none.
Under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (Reg. (EU) 2024/1252), a Member State identifies the large companies (Art. 2(29): >500 employees and >€150M net worldwide turnover) using strategic raw materials to manufacture a listed strategic technology (batteries, renewables, hydrogen, traction motors, heat pumps, aircraft, data-storage equipment, robotics, drones, satellites, advanced chips). Those companies must, at least every three years and to the extent the information is available to them (Art. 24(2)), assess their strategic-raw-material supply chain. Where suppliers do not provide the data on request, the assessment may rely on the Commission's monitoring dashboard (Art. 20(4)) or other publicly available information (Art. 24(3)) — which is the evidence base this report assembles. Board reporting (Art. 24(5)) is voluntary unless the Member State mandates it (Art. 24(6)).
| CRMA provision | Obligation | Where addressed |
|---|---|---|
| Art. 24(1) | Member State identifies the company as in-scope (uses an SRM to make a listed strategic technology). | Scope & applicability |
| Art. 24(2)(a) | Map where the strategic raw materials are extracted, processed and recycled. | Exposure register + Supply-risk factor analysis |
| Art. 24(2)(b) | Analyse the factors that might affect supply. | Supply-risk factor analysis (factor matrix) + The laws that threaten it |
| Art. 24(2)(c) | Assess vulnerabilities to supply disruptions. | Stress test + significant-vulnerability conclusion |
| Art. 24(3) | Where supplier data is unavailable, rely on Commission (Art. 20(4)) / public sources. | This report's basis — see Methodology & sources |
| Art. 24(4) | Where significant vulnerabilities are found, assess diversifying or substituting. | Significant-vulnerability conclusion + Priority mitigations |
| Art. 24(5)–(6) | Report results, sources, significant risks and mitigations to the board. | This document — board-ready, PDF-exportable |
This report pre-fills the Art. 24(3) public-source half of the assessment. The company-specific inputs — employee/turnover thresholds, bill-of-materials volumes, the tiered supplier map, and formal board adoption — remain the company's to complete; they are flagged as “company input” where they appear.
Article 24 applies only when both size thresholds are met and a Member State has identified the company as making a listed strategic technology with strategic raw materials.
| Threshold test | This assessment |
|---|---|
| Average employees (last FY) > 500 | company input |
| Net worldwide turnover (last FY) > €150M | company input |
| Uses a strategic raw material as an input | company input — all 1 scored SRM here is one this company produces, not buys; input use is not evidenced by this assessment |
| Manufactures a listed strategic technology | mining-metals (confirm against Annex) |
| Formally identified by a Member State authority | company input |
Production-concentration figures: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 + the production dataset behind each material page. Policy measures trace to the primary government sources below.
Each material's global supply-risk index blends five weighted factors: concentration of refining/processing (35%), active trade-control & policy pressure (25%), import reliance (15%), substitutability (15%), and price stress (10%). The buyer-relative score then scales the relational factors (concentration / policy / import) by this company's production-footprint alignment against each material's controlling country — bloc-neutral factors (substitutability, price) are left intact.
Caveats. The footprint is the company's assembly / manufacturing geography applied uniformly across all materials — a first-order proxy, not per-material input tracing. Scores are an analytical judgement on public data with a transparent weighting, not a market forecast or investment advice. Production shares reflect 2024-2025 figures and the policy position as of 2026-09-30; the register is continuously maintained and should be re-pulled against each new policy action.
MACROLENS · CICONIALABS · GEOPOLITICAL SUPPLY-RISK REPORT (EU CRMA ART. 20–25) · report generated 2026-10-07
Tip: the change log above defaults to the last 30 days. Append ?since=YYYY-MM-DD to this URL for a custom start date (e.g. ?since=2026-04-01).
This is a description of the actual automated pipeline (verifiable against this repo's own cron schedule), not a contractual commitment.