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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (61% of global) halts: 11 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 6-12mo (IN) · highest policy-risk: CA (score 3.9, 1 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Primary aluminium smelting (electrolytic, contained Al) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 1,242 (low). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m aluminium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Two-stage chokepoint inverted from the usual pattern: bauxite mining is genuinely diversified (Guinea ~34%, Australia ~22%, China ~20% — mining HHI ~moderate), but primary-aluminium SMELTING is China-dominant at ~61% of the world's 74 Mt output (USGS MCS 2026, smelting HHI ~high). Smelting is the binding constraint because it is intensely electricity-dependent (~14 MWh/t), so the concentration tracks where cheap power + state capacity sit, not where ore is dug. USGS MCS 2026 records the March 2025 US Section 232 tariff (25%, doubled to 50% by June 2025 ex-UK) as the defining 2025 trade event. Substitutes per USGS: copper in electrical/heat-exchange; composites/magnesium/steel/titanium in transport; steel/glass/plastics in packaging — so aluminium scores Elevated rather than High despite the smelting concentration. Bauxite supply itself is shaped by Indonesia's 2023 export ban (forcing domestic alumina) and Guinea's August 2025 licence revocation/reallocation to a state-backed miner.