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Second-order synthesis pieces that tie multiple covered materials into a single thematic narrative. Use these when the per-material dossiers feel fragmented — each analysis answers a different "big picture" question.
Grounded in the individual material dossiers; read the dossiers for detail, the analyses for pattern.
The score has five factors: producer concentration, EU import reliance, substitutability, policy pressure, and price stress. Policy pressure is built partly from the same export-control register we'd use as "ground truth" — so testing the full score against that register proves n
Four materials whose 2025-2026 price action has been pulled upward by the same underlying force:
| Material | Role in battery | April 2026 state | 2026 narrative | |---|---|---|---| | **Lithium** | Cathode (both NCM and LFP) + electrolyte | **+147% YTD**, rallying hard | Cyclical recovery from 2022-2024 crash | | **Cobalt** | Cathode (NCM only) | Flat MoM, +67% YTD paused |
Applied to a 10-slot strategic-materials book:
| Date | Action | Scope | |---|---|---| | **Aug 2023** | Export license required for Ge + Ga | All grades, all end-uses | | **Dec 2024** | Graphite (flake + synthetic) added | Primarily battery-anode grades | | **Apr 2025** | Heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb + 5 others) added | Magnet-g
Every atlas material where Chinese dominance matters has a shadow list of non-Chinese producers that:
| Metal | Spot | Day | MoM | YoY | ATH | Context | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | **Silver** | $75.97/oz | +0.78% | +6.54% | **+129.74%** | (historical) | Monetary + industrial (solar) | | **Platinum** | $1,986.90/oz | −2.53% | +3.17% | **+105.41%** | $2,923.70 **Jan 2026** | H2