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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (46% of global) halts: 4 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 0-6mo (ZA) · highest policy-risk: ZA (score 2.2, 1 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Ferrochrome production (FeCr, contained Cr) · Year: 2025 · Source: Estimated from ICDA industry data + USGS MCS 2026 Chromium chapter (China confirmed leading ferrochrome producer); per-country FeCr tonnage not published by USGS.
Post-removal HHI = 3,735 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m chromium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Two-stage: chromite ORE mining is South-Africa-dominant (~45% of the 51 Mt world total; mining HHI ~high, USGS MCS 2026), while ferrochrome CONVERSION — the form chromium reaches steelmakers in — has shifted to China as the leading producer, built largely on imported South African ore. The binding constraint is the FeCr stage (China-led). USGS states chromium has NO substitute in stainless steel (its leading end use) or in superalloys (the major strategic use), which puts a structural floor under the supply-risk score regardless of formal export controls. Watch item flagged by USGS MCS 2026: potential South African export controls/tariffs on chromite ore would directly hit Chinese ferrochrome production. The ferrochrome per-country split here is an ICDA-based estimate (USGS publishes the chromite mine table but not a ferrochrome production-by-country table); treat the FeCr shares as indicative, the chromite shares as USGS-exact.