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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (98% of global) halts: 3 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 12-24mo (RU) · highest policy-risk: RU (score 0, 0 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Primary low-purity gallium recovery (byproduct of bauxite/zinc refining; ~760 t/yr Ga content) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 3,750 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m gallium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Gallium is the headline material of China's critical-minerals counter-strike: the first commodity China put under export licensing (August 2023) and the first it banned outright to the United States (December 2024, MOFCOM Announcement No. 46). It is never mined — ~100% of primary low-purity (99.99%) gallium is recovered as a byproduct of Bayer-process alumina refining and, secondarily, zinc-residue processing, so production concentration tracks Chinese alumina-refining dominance. China holds ~99% of primary low-purity output (USGS MCS 2025: 750,000 of 760,000 kg, 2024; refining HHI ~9,680, extreme). A separate high-purity refined stage (~320,000 kg/yr, principal producers Canada/China/Japan/Slovakia/US per MCS 2025) sits downstream, but those high-purity refiners depend on Chinese low-purity feedstock, so the primary-recovery chokepoint is the binding one. The US has had ZERO domestic primary gallium production since 1987 and is 100% net-import-reliant. End uses are almost entirely strategic semiconductors: GaAs and GaN compound-semiconductor wafers for RF/defence ICs, power electronics, LEDs, laser diodes, and space solar cells — and USGS states no effective substitute exists for GaAs/GaN in defence applications. After the December 2024 US ban, China's primary low-purity price ran from ~$240/kg (June 2023) to ~$420/kg (October 2024). The November 2025 MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 suspended the US-destination ban until 27 November 2026, reverting to standard dual-use licensing — a conditional, revocable reprieve, not a repeal.