Germanium + Gallium · Monthly — April 2026

Bottom line: both metals quietly trending up after the post- January-2024-peak decline. Ge at CNY 17,500/kg (~$2,430) MoM +9.4%, YoY +13.6%. Ga at CNY 2,075/kg (~$288) YTD +16.9%, MoM flat. Both peaked at exactly 45,309 CNY/kg in January 2026 (the export-control-announcement shock), retraced materially, and are now creeping back up as chronic tightness reasserts. Not in crisis mode, but the pricing power China's August 2023 export controls gave it is persistently visible.

Price state (verified 2026-04-24)

Current prices are ~40% of the January 2024 peaks for germanium (~$2,430 vs ~$6,300 at peak) and ~5% of peak for gallium (~$288 vs ~$6,300 at peak). The gallium recovery from the 2024 shock has been much more complete than germanium — Ga supply licensing evidently flows more freely than Ge.

What changed / what matters

• Ge MoM +9.4% is the notable move — largest monthly gain

across the atlas this month, indicating either: (a) license-flow tightening again, or (b) downstream buyers rebuilding inventory ahead of potential further restrictions

• Ga MoM flat suggests licensed volumes are meeting

current demand without acute tightness

• Both still well below 2024 peaks — confirms that the

Chinese control regime is "managed pricing power", not "total supply denial"

• No major headline policy moves this month (per available

sources); the YTD uptrend is grind-higher, not event-driven

Concentration map (verified via TE)

Germanium

• China: ~60% of global output
• Rest: Canada (Teck Trail), Finland, Russia, US (Teck +

recycling)

• Most non-Chinese Ge is a zinc-smelter byproduct

Gallium

• China: >80% of global low-grade primary capacity
• Rest: Germany (Ingal Stade), Japan, Korea, Russia,

Ukraine

• Gallium extraction follows aluminum production geography;

China's aluminum dominance = gallium dominance

Structurally important: both are byproducts. Non-Chinese supply can only expand at the rate zinc (for Ge) and aluminum (for Ga) refining expands — not a policy lever China can directly constrain, but slower to mobilize than primary mining.

The 2023-2024 export control framework (still the operative story)

What happened:

• Aug 2023: China announces Ge + Ga export license requirement
• Prices spike; January 2024 peaks at 45,309 CNY/kg (both)
• Licenses begin to flow in 2024-H2
• December 2024: expansion to include specialty graphite +

additional semiconductor-related items

• 2025-2026: tightness "managed" but persistent

What the current prices tell us:

• Licenses flowing enough to keep Ga near pre-shock levels
• Ge noticeably tighter than Ga (higher price retention of

the shock premium, recent MoM acceleration)

• The pricing power is permanent until the US-China semi

export tension resolves (structurally not for years)

Scenarios

Germanium (MoM +9.4% trending)

• Further rise to CNY 20-25k: if license approvals slow

OR additional Chinese restrictions announced

• Hold CNY 15-18k range: base case, continuation of grind
• Pullback to CNY 12-15k: if US-China tensions thaw OR

Teck / Umicore scales meaningfully

Gallium (flat, YTD +17%)

• Rise to CNY 2,500-3,500: if EV GaN demand surges

faster than non-Chinese capacity builds

• Hold CNY 1,900-2,200: base case
• Pullback to CNY 1,500-1,800: if Chinese aluminum

output expands materially (byproduct supply rises)

Both materials have asymmetric upside from policy events (any new restrictions from China would spike prices) and limited downside because byproduct supply elasticity is low and cost floors are above historical lows.

Policy / geopolitical watchlist

• China MofCom export license approval rate — key

month-to-month signal

• US semi export control extensions (the root cause of

Chinese retaliation)

• DoD / DoE awards for US Ge/Ga refining projects
• Teck Resources Trail BC operational updates
• Nyrstar Ga capacity expansion plans
• Wolfspeed + Infineon + Navitas earnings — GaN demand

run-rate signal

Why this matters for the broader atlas

Germanium + gallium is the cleanest test case of the Chinese export-control playbook. The dynamics here preview what could happen to other materials:

• Heavy rare earths (Dy/Tb): already controlled (Apr 2025)
• Neodymium/praseodymium: not yet, plausible next

(see docs/minerals/materials/neodymium.md)

• Specialty graphite: added Dec 2024
• Tungsten, indium, tellurium: rumored candidates

The Ge/Ga price trajectory post-2024-peak is instructive: export controls create durable pricing power, don't create permanent supply shocks, and build pressure for non-Chinese capacity (slow to materialize). Any material with similar Chinese refining dominance + strategic end-use is a candidate for similar treatment.

Cross-references

• docs/minerals/materials/germanium-gallium.md (dossier)
• docs/minerals/materials/neodymium.md — shares the

export-control-risk pattern

• docs/minerals/materials/silicon.md — semi industry context
• docs/thinking/2026-04-22-tech-ai-value-chain.md — GaN in

data-centre power, EV inverters; GaAs in RF radar/cellular