Neodymium · Monthly — April 2026

Bottom line: neodymium is in the same rally cycle as lithium. Spot at CNY 1,065,000/t (~$148k/t) as of 2026-04-23, up +103% year-over-year, +9% month-on-month. The move is being driven by the combination of EV traction-motor demand, offshore wind installations, and — most importantly — the structural reassertion of China's dominance in refining (~85-90%) and magnet production (~87%). Export-control risk on heavy rare earths is already partly in effect; extension to Nd/Pr is the #1 tail risk the market is pricing.

Price state (verified 2026-04-23)

Current level is ~70% of the all-time high (Feb 2022). The rally has recovered more than half the distance from the post-peak trough without hitting exhaustion yet.

Concentration map (verified where noted)

Mining (2025, verified via Statista)

• China: >70% of global rare earth mine production (down

from 97% in 2016 — real but incomplete diversification)

• United States (MP Materials Mountain Pass): #2
• Australia ~29,000 t REO (Lynas)
• Myanmar ~22,000 t REO (artisanal, China-linked)
• Rest: Brazil, India, Russia, Vietnam

Refining / separation (structural, pre-wake)

• China ~85-90% of global REE refining — the real chokepoint
• Lynas Malaysia = largest non-Chinese separation facility
• MP Materials Stage II (US) ramping
• Europe + Japan small players

Magnet production (structural, pre-wake)

• China ~87% of NdFeB magnet production globally
• This is the most concentrated link in the chain
• Even non-Chinese refined oxide often ends up in Chinese

magnet factories

• Non-Chinese magnet capacity (Shin-Etsu, Hitachi/Proterial,

Neo Performance, MP Materials Stage III, VAC) exists but at <15% combined share

What changed this month

• Price move: +9% MoM, +103% YoY is the headline. Not a

commodity-cycle pattern — this is the magnitude that happens when supply-chain concentration fears reassert.

• No new Chinese export control on Nd/Pr specifically — but

market is pricing the probability as meaningful. The dysprosium + terbium controls from early 2025 set the template; extension to Nd/Pr has been a constant rumor.

• MP Materials Stage III magnet factory progressing —

this is the most important non-Chinese downstream project.

• EV production strong in China (per CAAM data patterns,

not directly verified this wake). LFP chemistry still dominant in China doesn't help Nd demand (LFP doesn't use permanent magnets for traction motors... wait, actually it does — the cathode chemistry (LFP vs NCM) is independent of the motor magnet chemistry. Both use NdFeB magnets in traction motors. Correcting my initial instinct here: EV = NdFeB magnet demand, regardless of battery chemistry.)

Concentration risks (stack-ranked, hedging ideas)

1. China restricts NdPr oxide exports (not yet, probable) - Hedge: build non-Chinese inventory buffer now, qualify alternative suppliers (Lynas, MP), accept higher prices 2. China extends magnet export controls (partial already) - Hedge: design products that can tolerate ferrite alternatives where feasible (lower-torque motors); qualify non-Chinese magnet suppliers; longer inventory cycles 3. Myanmar instability (ongoing) - Hedge: reduce dependence on heavy-REE-content chemistries where possible; accept Dy/Tb price risk as a given 4. MP Materials / Lynas execution delays - Hedge: diversify across both; Energy Fuels + Iluka as tertiary suppliers; recycling magnet streams (Neo, HyProMag)

Scenarios

• Further upside to CNY 1.3-1.5M/t (~$180-210k): if China

announces Nd/Pr oxide export licensing scheme, or if any US- China trade friction escalation triggers it pre-emptively

• Hold CNY 1.0-1.2M/t range: base case if no policy shock
• Pullback to CNY 0.7-0.9M/t: if MP Materials ramps faster,

Lynas expands, and policy stays accommodative

Forecast cone from Trading Economics (~+12% in 12 months) suggests the market-implied base case is modest further appreciation without a shock.

What I'm watching for next month

• China Ministry of Commerce announcements (any rare earth

language, even informal)

• MP Materials Q1 2026 earnings (late April / early May) —

Stage II ramp progress, Stage III commissioning timeline

• Lynas Rare Earths quarterly (Mt Weld production, Malaysia

separation throughput, new US kalgoorlie refinery status)

• US DoD / DoE award announcements for domestic REE projects
• Any offshore wind tender cancellations / delays (bearish

signal for Nd demand at the margin)

Questions this report helps answer

• *"If China restricts NdPr, what's my magnet supply-chain

exposure and what do I switch to?"* — See concentration map + hedges. There is currently no at-scale fast substitute. The right move is inventory + alternative supplier qualification, not chemistry substitution.

• "Is the rally over?" — Probably not. Structural drivers

are intact, and policy tail-risk is asymmetric upside for prices.

• "Who benefits from the rally?" — MP Materials (US),

Lynas (AU), Iluka (AU), and Japanese magnet makers with long-term Australian offtakes.

What this report still needs

• Dysprosium + Terbium current prices (the heavy REE partners

that dominate the high-spec magnet story)

• MP Materials Stage III current commissioning status
• China MofCom public statements this month (verify via

AP / Reuters equivalent in next wake)

• Offshore wind installation stats (GWEC quarterly)