Platinum + Palladium — combined dossier

Covered together as the two principal platinum-group metals (PGMs). Economics are paired: primary supply is jointly produced (with rhodium, iridium, ruthenium as byproducts), auto-catalyst demand is partially inter-substitutable, and price spreads between the two drive industrial substitution decisions.

What they are

Platinum (Pt): precious/industrial metal, atomic number 78. Uses: auto catalysts (diesel + gasoline), jewellery (~25% in China+India), industrial catalysis (petrochemicals), electrical contacts, glass fibre, medical devices, hydrogen fuel cells + electrolyzers (fastest-growing segment, "hydrogen economy" demand).

Palladium (Pd): precious/industrial metal, atomic number 46. Uses: auto catalysts (gasoline vehicles especially, NOx reduction), dental alloys, electronics (multilayer ceramic capacitors), specialty chemistry. Very auto-dependent.

The Pt-Pd substitution spread: gasoline auto-catalysts can use either Pt or Pd (or Rh); substitution happens when relative prices diverge materially. 2015-2021: Pd premium over Pt drove auto-makers to substitute toward Pt (cheaper). 2022-2025: spread partly normalised. Now (April 2026): Pt trading above Pd ($1,987 vs $1,477), unusual relative to history.

Price state (verified 2026-04-24)

Platinum

Platinum more than doubled YoY. Current ~68% of the January 2026 ATH.

Palladium

Palladium is further from its 2022 peak (~43% of ATH) and rallying at roughly half the pace of platinum. The Pt/Pd ratio at ~1.35 is historically high — historically Pd traded at a premium to Pt (pre-2015 and 2017-2021).

PGM context

Per TE: "broad weakness across PGMs" day-over-day amid USD strength + elevated Treasury yields + Strait-of-Hormuz tensions. Short-term noise overlying strong structural rally.

Where they come from

Platinum production (~190 tonnes/year globally)

• South Africa: ~80% (verified via TE) — Bushveld Complex

is the dominant global reserve; Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), Impala, Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam

• Russia: ~8-10% (Norilsk Nickel byproduct)
• Zimbabwe: ~4-5% (Great Dyke — Implats, Zimplats)
• North America: ~2-3% (Sibanye-Stillwater Montana)
• Rest: small

Palladium production (~210 tonnes/year globally)

• Russia: ~40% (Norilsk — primary co-product with nickel)
• South Africa: ~35-40% (Bushveld byproduct of platinum)
• North America: ~10% (Sibanye-Stillwater Stillwater MT,

Lac des Iles CA via Impala)

• Zimbabwe: ~7-8%
• Rest: small

Structurally important: palladium is more Russia- concentrated than platinum; platinum is more South Africa- concentrated. Sanctions on Russia hit palladium more than platinum. South African labour/power issues hit both but platinum more.

Refining

PGM refining is relatively distributed:

• Anglo American Platinum, Impala, **Sibanye-

Stillwater, Northam**: South Africa-integrated

• Norilsk Nickel: Russia
• Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, BASF: secondary

refining + catalyst downstream

• Asahi Holdings (Japan), Tanaka (Japan)

Demand structure

Platinum demand (~230 tonnes/year)

• Auto catalysts: ~40% (diesel + some gasoline; shrinking

as ICE share of auto market declines)

• Jewellery: ~25% (China + India dominant buyers)
• **Industrial (glass, petrochemical catalysis, chemicals):

~20%**

• **Hydrogen / fuel cells / electrolyzers: ~5-10% and

growing fast** (PEM electrolyzers use ~0.5g Pt/kW; this is the fastest-growing secular demand driver)

• Investment (bars, coins, ETFs): ~5-10%

Palladium demand (~310 tonnes/year)

• Auto catalysts: ~80% (gasoline vehicles especially; ~5-

10g per vehicle)

• Electronics (MLCCs): ~5-8%
• Chemical catalysis: ~5%
• Dental alloys: ~3-5%
• Investment: ~3%
• New potential: Li-sulfur batteries (Nornickel research

— per TE) — could be a major new demand source if proves out

Policy / geopolitical context

• Russia sanctions: PGMs have NOT been formally sanctioned

like some Russian commodities, but Western buyers are voluntarily diversifying. Palladium is the most exposed (~40% Russian).

• South Africa operational risk: chronic power shortages

(Eskom), labour disputes (major AMCU strikes 2012 and since), community unrest. Any material disruption tightens both Pt and Pd.

• EV transition: reduces ICE auto-catalyst demand

structurally. But EVs don't use auto-catalysts at all, so pure EVs are zero-Pt/Pd. Hybrids still use catalysts.

• Hydrogen economy: structural tailwind for Pt

specifically. IEA, IRENA projections have green-H2 capacity expanding 10-30x by 2030. PEM electrolyzer platinum demand could be 20-50 tonnes/year at scale (meaningful vs current ~25t industrial demand).

• US / EU critical minerals: both PGMs on strategic

lists

Concentration risks

1. South African power / labour crisis — chronic; any acute event tightens Pt materially (~80% of supply exposure) 2. Russia sanctions escalation — Pd more exposed 3. EV adoption acceleration — long-term Pd demand drag (Pt less exposed because of hydrogen offset) 4. Inverse risk: H2 economy falters — removes Pt's growth driver, could bring Pt/Pd ratio back toward historical norm (Pt lower, Pd higher)

Why the Pt/Pd ratio is unusual right now

Historical Pt/Pd pattern (~1980-2015): Pt traded at a premium to Pd (Pt ~1.5-3x Pd). Post-2015: Pd surged on gasoline-auto demand while Pt stagnated on diesel decline; Pd/Pt spread inverted. 2022 Pd ATH at $3,440 while Pt was ~$1,100.

Now (April 2026): Pt > Pd for the first time since ~2017, and notably Pt's YoY +105% far exceeds Pd's +58%.

Explanations: 1. Hydrogen economy demand real and bidding up Pt 2. South African supply tightening on power + labour issues 3. Auto-catalyst substitution (Pd → Pt where possible) materializing as relative prices favour it 4. Jewellery demand for Pt recovering in China 5. Pd demand for gasoline autos hitting a plateau as LFP-EV penetration rises in key markets (China)

Implication for investors: Pt has a clean structural bull story (H2); Pd is defensive/recovery with EV headwind. Current Pt premium has run hard; further widening possible but not guaranteed.

Players to know

South African majors (PGM miners)

• Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) — largest
• Impala Platinum (Implats)
• Sibanye-Stillwater (dual SA + US listed)
• Northam Platinum
• African Rainbow Minerals Platinum

Russian major

• Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) — sanctioned from much

of West, still selling to Asia

North American

• Sibanye-Stillwater Stillwater Mine (Montana)
• Impala Canada (Lac des Iles)

Zimbabwean

• Zimplats (Impala-owned)

Downstream catalyst / refining

• Johnson Matthey (UK — refining + auto catalyst)
• BASF (Germany — auto catalyst)
• Heraeus (Germany — refining + fabrication)
• Umicore (Belgium — refining + recycling)
• Asahi Holdings (Japan)
• Tanaka Precious Metals (Japan)

Hydrogen economy exposure

• Plug Power, Bloom Energy (US — fuel cells /

electrolyzers)

• Ballard Power (Canada — fuel cells)
• Nel ASA (Norway — electrolyzers)
• ITM Power (UK — electrolyzers)

What to watch monthly

• Pt and Pd spot (daily tradable; LME-equivalent markets)
• Pt/Pd spread (substitution signal)
• SA PGM miner quarterly production (Amplats, Implats,

Sibanye)

• SA power status (Eskom load-shedding data)
• Nornickel production + export data (Russia)
• WPIC (World Platinum Investment Council) supply/demand

updates

• Chinese jewellery demand (China Gold Association tracking

of gold often includes platinum)

• PEM electrolyzer project announcements (Pt demand proxy)
• Hybrid vs pure-EV mix (Pd demand proxy)

Cross-references

• Reports: docs/minerals/reports/YYYY-MM-platinum-palladium.md
• docs/minerals/FRAMEWORK.md — PGMs are an interesting

framework case: Pt is policy-neutral structural bull (H2 economy); Pd is asymmetric risk (demand declining per-unit from EV, supply concentrated in sanctioned Russia + SA). Different cells despite being paired trading metals.

• docs/minerals/materials/nickel.md — Nornickel is

simultaneously the largest Pd producer AND a major Ni producer; supply chain cross-linked