Tellurium (Te)

Atomic number 52 · metalloid chalcogen · copper-anode-slime co-product

Why tellurium matters

Tellurium is the indispensable input to CdTe (cadmium telluride) thin-film photovoltaics — the only commercial thin-film PV chemistry to achieve >22% laboratory and >19% commercial cell efficiency, and the PV chemistry on which First Solar (the largest US-headquartered solar manufacturer and the West's largest non-Chinese module maker) has built ~21 GW/yr of fabrication capacity across Ohio, Alabama, Vietnam (commissioned 2025) and India (commissioning 2026). CdTe is also the only PV chemistry whose levelised cost of energy is robust to bifacial + tracker + tropical-humidity field conditions where c-Si modules suffer LeTID + PID degradation. There is no chemically equivalent substitute for the CdTe absorber layer.

Tellurium is simultaneously the indispensable input to Bi₂Te₃ thermoelectric Peltier modules — the only solid-state heat-pumping technology operating at 200-400 K, used in EV battery + cabin thermal management (BMW i, Audi e-tron, Mercedes EQ, Tesla Model S+X, Lucid, Polestar 3), CPU/GPU/fibre-optic thermal stabilisation, and laser diode bench-top conditioning. EV thermoelectric demand is growing 12-18% CAGR through 2030.

The third strategically-weighted application is HgCdTe (mercury cadmium telluride) focal-plane arrays — the only material system delivering high-resolution mid-wave + long-wave infrared imaging at defence-grade pixel pitch. F-35 EOTS, Raytheon DAS, Thales Catherine, BAE Talisman ECM, ESA Sentinel-3 satellites all depend on HgCdTe detectors. Tonnage is small (~25 t/yr) but the strategic weight is disproportionate.

End-use breakdown (2024): CdTe thin-film PV ~40%, thermoelectric Bi₂Te₃ ~30%, metallurgical / free-machining steel + cast iron + Cu alloys ~15%, IR detectors ~4%, rubber-vulcanisation + glass + specialty chemicals ~11%.

The supply chain in one paragraph

There is no primary tellurium mine. Te is recovered at the copper-smelter electrolytic-refining step from anode slimes — the residue collected at the bottom of the cell-house tank-house when blister copper is cast as anodes and electro-refined to high-purity cathode copper. Te concentration in slime is 1-10% by mass; the slime also contains Au, Ag, Pt-group metals, Se and Bi that are recovered in the same flowsheet. World refinery production is ~620 t/yr (USGS MCS 2025, 2024 calendar year). China ~60%, Russia ~10%, US ~9%, Japan ~8%, Sweden ~6%, Canada ~4%, Bulgaria ~2%, Germany ~1% of refined Te output. Production-share data reflects copper-smelter siting plus downstream willingness to invest in Te-recovery flowsheet capex — NOT independent Te-mining decisions. Many Andean copper smelters (Codelco, Antofagasta, Antamina, Cerro Verde) currently sell their Te-bearing anode slimes rather than recover Te, leaving an estimated ~100-150 t/yr of Western-aligned latent capacity that EU CRMA Annex II + US DPA §303 critical-supply offtake-guarantee structures may unlock.

The 2024-2025 export-control regime

China MOFCOM included tellurium in the GACC dual-use export-licence regime progressively tightened across 2023-2025:

• August 2023: germanium + gallium dual-use export controls
• December 2024: gallium + germanium + antimony + superhard

materials outright ban to the United States (MOFCOM Announcement 46)

• July 2024 / December 2024 / February 2025: graphite + indium +

bismuth + tellurium added to the dual-use export-licence list

For tellurium specifically, exports require case-by-case GACC approval since mid-2024 with US-end-user customers — particularly First Solar Ohio + Alabama and US Defense-Logistics-Agency HgCdTe focal-plane-array suppliers — facing licence-denial on defence + dual-use applications. The EU + Japan + Korea path remains open but with elongated lead-times (8-16 weeks vs prior 2-4 weeks). This is the canonical "slow-burn export control" identical in structure to the parallel indium regime — incremental tightening without a single bilateral cutoff event, but with a cumulative price effect: spot Te ~$80-110/kg (2021-2022) → ~$130-170/kg (2023-2024) → ~$100-180/kg (2024-2025 structural).

Historical price trajectory

Tellurium's price history is dominated by First Solar capex cycles plus copper-smelter Te-recovery economics:

• 2010-2014: ~$70-100/kg sustained — first CdTe fab build-out

cycle; Asarco Amarillo TX peak production ~80 t/yr.

• 2015-2020: ~$30-70/kg structural floor — Te price compression

trimmed US + Canadian + Japanese Te-recovery economics; Asarco share collapsed; 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC pivoted to downstream Te-ingot fabrication rather than primary recovery.

• 2021-2022: ~$80-110/kg — recovery on First Solar Series 6

capex cycle + initial EV thermoelectric demand pull.

• 2023-2024: ~$130-170/kg — China dual-use export-licence regime

+ EU CRMA Annex II 2024 Strategic + Critical designation drove Western secondary-supply investment; First Solar Vietnam fab pre-stocking pulled inventory.

• 2024-2025: ~$100-180/kg structural — partial easing as 5N Plus

Saint-Laurent QC + Boliden Rönnskär SE incremental output ramped, partially offset by First Solar India fab pre-stocking demand.

Pricing remains bilateral / contracted (no LME tellurium futures contract exists; Argus + Fastmarkets weekly Te assessments serve as the de-facto reference).

Critical-minerals-list status (universal)

• US: DOI Critical Minerals List 2018, retained 2022 + 2025

review; DPA §303 designated since 2023 for CdTe-PV + HgCdTe defence + thermoelectric applications.

• EU CRMA 2024: Strategic + Critical (Annex II) — flagged for

CdTe-PV + Bi₂Te₃ thermoelectric strategic dependency.

• Japan METI: 34-mineral stockpile list; JOGMEC maintains

physical stockpile with target-coverage 60 days of national consumption (~80-90 t/yr).

• Korea KORES: 33-strategic-minerals list — Samsung Display +

Korean defence + LG Innotek IR-detector demand drives consumption.

• Australia: 2023 Critical Minerals List.
• UK: 2023 Critical Minerals Refresh — flagged for HgCdTe IR

imaging + III-V semiconductor applications.

• Canada: 2021 Critical Minerals List — Glencore CCR Montreal +

5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC as domestic supply anchors.

Western supply-chain alternatives

There are essentially three non-Chinese clusters of meaningful capacity:

1. United States — Asarco Amarillo TX (~30 t/yr; sole US primary Te refinery, owned by Grupo México) plus smaller Freeport-McMoRan El Paso + Miami streams. US output has been on a structural downtrend (16% world share 2014 → 12% 2019 → 9% 2024) as Te price compression 2015-2020 trimmed Asarco's Te-recovery margin.

2. Japan — Sumitomo Toyo + JX Nippon Saganoseki + Pan Pacific Copper Hibi-Kyodo combined ~50 t/yr. Japan is the historic technology leader in high-purity Te (>99.999% for HgCdTe + CdTe epitaxy) + Te-precursor (DETe, DiPTe) manufacturing for III-V MOCVD epitaxy used by AIXTRON Aachen MOCVD-tool customers worldwide.

3. Sweden + Canada + Bulgaria + Germany — Boliden Rönnskär SE ~37 t/yr, Glencore CCR Montreal + 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC ~25 t/yr, Aurubis Pirdop BG + Hamburg DE ~18 t/yr combined. Aggregate ~80 t/yr provides the European Te-supply floor; insufficient on its own to cover non-Asian demand but provides redundancy for First Solar Ohio CdTe-precursor + EU defence HgCdTe + EV thermoelectric.

The 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC capacity expansion announced 2024 (roughly doubling Te-ingot output from ~25 → ~50 t/yr by 2027) is the single most strategically-important Western-aligned Te capacity addition currently in flight — analog to LS Nikko Onsan's role in indium, it positions Canada as the primary non-Chinese feedstock source for First Solar Ohio CdTe-precursor.

US-specific exposure is significant but partially mitigated: Asarco Amarillo + 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC + Boliden Rönnskär SE combined ~92 t/yr provides ~15% of world refined output to a Western-aligned offtake pool. First Solar's North American manufacturing footprint can in principle be supplied entirely from this non-Chinese supply chain, but only at a ~30-50% price premium versus Chinese spot.

German Mittelstand exposure

The German mid-market industrial exposure is concentrated in five segments:

• Heraeus (Hanau, family-owned) — global market leader in Te

sputter-target manufacturing for thin-film PV + IR-detector + thermoelectric applications; consumes ~40-60 t/yr tellurium across its target-fabrication + thin-film-coatings + CdTe-precursor divisions. Heraeus is the only non-Asian high-volume CdTe-precursor producer of record outside 5N Plus.

• Aurubis (Hamburg + Pirdop) — combined ~18 t/yr primary-Te

refining, the only EU-domiciled smelter-integrated Te recovery.

• BMW + Audi + Mercedes-Benz + Porsche EV programmes —

thermoelectric Bi₂Te₃ Peltier cooler integration in EV battery + cabin thermal management; Te-content per vehicle ~20-50 g typical, rising to ~80-150 g on high-spec thermal-management variants.

• TRUMPF + Zeiss + Coherent Saarbrücken — laser-diode thermal

stabilisation + IR-photonics + EUV-related thermoelectric conditioning; small absolute tonnage, high strategic weight on the EUV photolithography supply chain.

• AIXTRON (Aachen) — MOCVD-tool customers (Cree/Wolfspeed,

Veeco, Riber) consume DETe + DiPTe organometallic Te-precursors for III-V semiconductor epitaxy; AIXTRON's tools are the global market leader for HgCdTe + InP MOCVD growth.

The November 2024 BMWK + KfW critical-minerals-finance facility (€2.5 bn) explicitly listed tellurium alongside germanium, gallium, indium and rare earths as eligible for state-loan-guarantee coverage on European-supplier offtake agreements — the first explicit West-aligned secondary-supply backstop for Te.

What to watch 2025-2030

1. First Solar Vietnam + India ramp — combined ~14 GW/yr incremental CdTe capacity 2025-2027 → ~140 t/yr incremental Te demand, ~63% of current world refined Te output. Whether First Solar can secure non-Chinese Te feedstock at scale is the binding constraint on its 2027-2030 capacity plan. 2. 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC expansion — ~25 → ~50 t/yr by 2027 is the canonical Western capacity-addition signal; if it lands on schedule, Canadian Te share could rise from ~4% → ~7% of world output. 3. Andean Cu-smelter Te-recovery investment — Codelco, Antofagasta, Antamina, Cerro Verde currently sell anode slimes rather than recover Te (~$200-400 m/yr foregone-revenue inefficiency). EU CRMA + US DPA §303 offtake-guarantee structures could unlock ~100-150 t/yr of Western-aligned latent capacity by 2030. 4. EV thermoelectric pull — the demand-side wild card; OEM adoption rates of Bi₂Te₃ thermal-management modules vary 5x between programmes. Universal adoption across EU + KR + JP + US premium-EV programmes would add ~50-100 t/yr Te demand by 2030. 5. HgCdTe defence demand — F-35 EOTS retrofit + Raytheon DAS + ESA Sentinel-4/5/6 + UK Tempest IRST + Korean KF-21 IRST programme procurements pull cumulative ~30-50 t/yr through 2030. 6. CdTe-vs-perovskite competition — perovskite tandem cells are the longest-term substitution risk but remain pre-commercial through 2027; CdTe market share is unlikely to be eroded before 2030.

Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (tellurium chapter); IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2024; First Solar 10-K 2024; EU CRMA 2024 Annex II rationale documents; JOGMEC tellurium supply balance 2024; KORES 33-list 2023 documentation; Argus + Fastmarkets weekly tellurium price assessments 2020-2025; 5N Plus annual report 2024; Boliden + Aurubis + Heraeus annual reports 2024; Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on Chinese MOFCOM dual-use export-licence regime 2023-2025.