Loading…
Loading…
One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (80% of global) halts: 7 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 6-12mo (RU) · highest policy-risk: RU (score 0, 0 filings) · 1 of these (RU) sit under comprehensive Western sanctions and aren't a real option for a Western buyer regardless of the risk score.
Stage: Refined tellurium production (Cu-anode-slime recovery; ~1,000 t/yr global ex-US) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 2,241 (moderate). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m tellurium filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Tellurium is uniquely single-stage in production-data terms — Te is recovered at the copper-smelter electrolytic-refining step from anode slimes, not as a separately-mined-then-refined material. Production-share data reflects copper-smelter siting + downstream-Te-recovery flowsheet investment, NOT independent Te-mining decisions. Production HHI ~4,200 (high-band, approaching extreme). The headline ~60% Chinese share understates Western-aligned exposure: Russian (~10%, sanctions-exposed) + Chinese ~70% combined means Western-aligned Te supply is structurally ~30% of world output, with Sweden + US + Japan + Canada combined ~27%. Decade trajectory: CN 50% → 55% → 80% (MCS 2026 narrative) — share JUMP across the 2024-2025 boundary as USGS recognized the doubling of Chinese Cu-anode capacity over the past decade; world refined Te output also revised UP from ~620 t to ~1,000 t. US share now WITHHELD by USGS (proprietary) — was ~9-12%, structurally declined as Asarco Amarillo capacity stagnated. Russia 8% → 9% → 6.7% via Norilsk Nickel + UMMC Te-recovery flowsheet but sanctions impacted Western recovery channels. The most important supply-side variables for 2025-2030 are: (1) 5N Plus Saint-Laurent QC capacity expansion announced 2024 (~25 → ~50 t/yr Te-ingot output by 2027, primary non-Chinese feedstock for First Solar Ohio CdTe fab — strategic Canadian-supply role analog to indium's LS Nikko Onsan position); (2) Andean Cu-smelter Te-recovery investment — Codelco + Antofagasta + Antamina + Cerro Verde currently sell anode slimes rather than recover Te (~$200-400 m/yr foregone-revenue inefficiency that EU CRMA + US DPA §303 critical-supply policies may unlock with offtake-guarantee structures); (3) First Solar Vietnam (commissioned 2025) + India (commissioned 2026) ramp adding ~14 GW/yr CdTe capacity → ~140 t/yr incremental Te demand by 2027 (~63% of world refined Te output today). German Mittelstand exposure: Heraeus Hanau as global market leader in Te sputter-target + CdTe-precursor manufacturing for thin-film PV + IR-detector + thermoelectric applications; Aurubis Hamburg + Pirdop combined ~18 t/yr primary-Te refining; BMW + Audi + Mercedes EV battery thermoelectric Peltier-cooler integration; TRUMPF + Zeiss + Coherent Saarbrücken laser-diode thermal-stabilisation. Listed on US DOI 2018 + 2022 + 2025 + DPA §303 since 2023, EU CRMA Annex II 2024 Strategic + Critical, JP METI 34-list, KR KORES 33-list, AU 2023, UK 2023 Refresh, CA 2021. The November 2024 BMWK + KfW critical-minerals-finance facility (€2.5 bn) explicitly listed tellurium alongside germanium + gallium + indium + rare earths as eligible for state-loan-guarantee coverage on European-supplier offtake agreements. The February 2025 CN MOFCOM tellurium export-licence regime (45-day issuance, end-user/end-use verification required) lifted Rotterdam Te +84% YoY ($81.54 → $150/kg avg 2025) and US warehouse Te +60% ($74.77 → $120/kg avg 2025) — the most explicit single-policy-event Te price shock since the 2010 China REE quota episode.