Uranium · Monthly — April 2026

Bottom line: uranium at $87.15/lb U3O8, up +3.9% MoM and +31.8% YoY. Demand story is the real-economy nuclear renaissance driven by AI/data-centre power needs, SMR commercialisation, and US regulatory easing. US announced $2.7B in deals with Cameco + Centrus for domestic supply. The real chokepoint is enrichment (Rosatom ~40%), not mining. Current price discounts a demand trajectory that meaningfully materialises 2028-2032 when SMRs come online.

Price state (verified 2026-04-24)

Recent range cited by TE: trading narrowly around $85 after a mid-March dip to two-month lows. Middle East conflict has kept speculative sentiment cautious even as fundamental demand story strengthens.

What changed / what matters

Per TE commentary:

• US reduced regulatory barriers for uranium converters

and enrichers

• $2.7B in US deals with Cameco + Centrus announced —

material investment in domestic supply chain

• Tech companies signing SMR offtake contracts for data

centre power (the 2024-2026 demand narrative)

• Middle East conflict depressing risk appetite but not

breaking the uptrend

The market is in a "grinding uptrend, narrative-supportive, waiting for demand realisation" state. Unlike Li / Nd / Ni, uranium's demand story isn't fully present in the numbers yet — it depends on SMRs coming online 2028-2032.

Concentration map (pre-wake, structural)

Mine production (~60kt/yr)

• Kazakhstan: 40-45% (Kazatomprom, ISL mining, low-cost)
• Canada: 13-15% (Cameco, high-grade underground)
• Namibia: 10-12% (Rossing + Husab, Chinese-controlled)
• Australia: 8-10% (Olympic Dam byproduct; Ranger wound down)
• Uzbekistan, Niger: ~5-7% each (politically volatile)
• Russia: ~5-7% domestic

Enrichment — the real chokepoint

• Rosatom (Russia): ~40% of global capacity
• Urenco (UK/NL/DE/US consortium): ~30%
• Orano (France): ~15%
• China (CNNC + SWU): ~12-15%

Enrichment is where Russia's dominance matters. The US banned Russian enriched uranium imports April 2024 (with waivers through 2027). Western utilities are locking in Urenco + Orano capacity at premium prices. This is driving the structural price support more than the mine-supply story.

Conversion (5 plants globally)

• ConverDyn/Honeywell (US, restarted 2023)
• Cameco (Canada)
• Orano (France)
• Rosatom (Russia)
• CNNC (China)

The nuclear renaissance (verified via TE)

Drivers converging 2024-2026: 1. AI/data centre power demand — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta signing SMR offtake contracts directly 2. Grid decarbonisation policy — US IRA includes nuclear; EU taxonomy treats it as green 3. Energy security post-Russia-Ukraine 4. SMR commercialisation — NuScale, X-energy, TerraPower, Rolls-Royce, Holtec at various stages (2028-2032 for first commercial deployments) 5. Plant life extensions — US + EU reactors getting 20-year extensions (60→80 year licenses) 6. Restarts of idled plants — Palisades, Three Mile Island Unit 1 (Microsoft offtake)

Scenarios

• Rally to $110-140/lb: if major policy event accelerates

demand (EU formally sanctioning Russian enrichment, accelerated SMR approvals, major data-center operator committing multi-GW nuclear)

• Hold $80-100/lb range: base case — the grinding uptrend

continues as narrative bleeds into procurement

• Pullback to $65-80/lb: if SMR commercialisation delays

(regulatory setbacks, project cost overruns), Middle East conflict escalates depressing commodity sentiment, OR AI capex cycle cools

The upside-tail is fatter than the downside-tail given:

• Multiple independent demand drivers (not all need to hit)
• Enrichment supply inelasticity
• Long production ramp times (Cameco can't just turn on

mothballed capacity overnight)

Policy / geopolitical watchlist

• US ending Russian-enrichment waivers (scheduled 2027,

could be brought forward)

• EU formal sanction of Russian nuclear fuel (still

off the table but discussed)

• NRC SMR approvals — NuScale already approved, next

TerraPower Natrium + X-energy Xe-100 in pipeline

• Kazakhstan political stability + Kazatomprom

production updates

• Cameco + Centrus capacity expansion (part of the

$2.7B deal)

• Hyperscaler offtake announcements — any new one is

price-supportive

Questions this report helps answer

• "Is the nuclear renaissance real or rhetoric?" — Real.

Hyperscalers are signing actual contracts. US govt is funding real infrastructure. But deployment is 2028+ for most SMR demand. So it's real but slow.

• "What's the enrichment supply story?" — Structurally

tight. Non-Russian capacity can expand but slowly (Urenco ~2-3% capacity growth per year; Orano similar). US HALEU is a tiny but strategic slice.

• "How exposed am I to Russia?" — If you run a nuclear

reactor in the US or EU and your utility hasn't diversified enrichment contracts in the last 18 months, significantly. If you're a new SMR developer, probably not (building fresh supply chains).

Cross-references

• docs/minerals/materials/uranium.md (dossier)
• docs/thinking/2026-04-22-tech-ai-value-chain.md — AI

capex → data centres → power = uranium demand cross-link

• docs/minerals/materials/copper.md — data centre power

story is also copper-intensive (grid + server-room)

• docs/minerals/materials/germanium-gallium.md — GaN

power semis + data centre power = parallel demand catalyst